FOMC Will Discuss the Economic Outlook

What will happen?

Federal Reserve will make a statement on November 3, 20:00 GMT+2. There we will hear about Fed’s view on the current economic situation, tapering plans, and other hawkish or dovish tones. The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. Traders focus on these changes. In 30 minutes FOMC will hold a press conference that lasts about an hour long and has 2 parts - first, a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions.

Why is it important?

First, this statement is the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. The decisions made this day not only add volatility to the market but also can change the game. For example, when FOMC started to talk about tapering seriously (August-September 2021), S&P 500 had a 6% correction that lasted for more than a month. Second, the questions at the press conference often lead to unscripted answers that create even more volatility.

How to trade on FOMC meeting?

The main affected assets are US 500 (S&P 500) and US 100 because tapering news affects the stock market directly. Also, gold tends to have an inverse correlation with USD, and USD tends to rise on tapering plans.

If the meeting is rather hawkish – S&P 500 will fall, and USD will rise.
Otherwise – S&P 500 will rise, and USD will fall.

Check the economic calendar

Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, US 500, US 100, XAU/USD.

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Eduard Melkostupov

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