Forex, stocks, oil, and gold on Feb 28 - March 4

Last week was super intense! Geopolitical turbulence made the Russian ruble the most volatile currency. Gold rose and fell by more than 8000 points each time. Meanwhile, Brent oil surged to an 8-year high above $100 a barrel. So let's get to the bottom of these events and get ready for the next trading days!

Trade ideas for Forex pairs

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine can have significant economic consequences. Russian central bank is trying to limit the advance of USD/RUB, but the pair may retest 90.00 and even get to 100.00 if the situation keeps escalating. The United States and Europe imposed sanctions on various Russian companies, but their economies will also suffer. Given this new environment, traders started questioning the belief that the US central bank would raise the federal funds rate by 50 basis points in March.

Nevertheless, the USD tested the highest levels since 2020 as traders consider it a better refuge from uncertainty than the EUR or the GBP. Therefore, demand for the US currency will stay high, like the safe JPY and the CHF. GBP/USD will remain vulnerable for a decline to 1.3200 and 1.3050 as long as it's trading below 1.3500. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia probably won't hike the rate on Tuesday, so AUD/USD may remain capped by 0.7280. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada may raise interest rates, and USD/CAD may visit 1.2600.

Oil & gold: what's next?

Fears of disruptions in commodities supply pushed oil and gas prices up. The US tried to leave the Russian oil sector out of sanctions for now. OPEC will decide its production levels on Wednesday, and the odds are that it will stick to the current plan without increasing oil supply more than planned. Still, XBR/USD already includes a lot of news, so further advance probably won't be that rapid. The price may subside towards $90 a barrel.

XAU/USD spent most of last week above $1900. It looks like traders will buy gold on the dips to hedge from global risks. As a result, the yellow metal should keep returning to $1950. 

Stocks caught by volatility

The American stock market is sensitive to swings in the overall risk sentiment. US500 got hurt by the news and tested levels below 4200. Even though the price turned back up on Thursday and Friday, there's still a risk of a bearish market. To change this view, buyers need to push the index above 4400.

Elsewhere, Chinese Alibaba reported the slowest-ever growth in quarterly revenue since going public in 2014. After the news, traders will have to see whether the stock manages to remain above $100.

 TRADE NOW

Elizabeth Belugina

More by this author

Similar

29.08.2022 14:09 What to Trade on August 29 - September 2?

Last week several important economic updates influenced the Forex market. US preliminary GDP fell less than expected (0.6% actual vs. 0.7% forecast). Below you will find the key events to trade on during the week from August 29 to September 2.

01.04.2022 18:10 Forex, oil, gold, and stocks on April 4-8

Last week, there were sharp swings in USDJPY, a decline in oil prices, and a surge in Tesla stock. What's next?

11.03.2022 16:11 Trading on geopolitics on March 14-18

Geopolitical factors and inflation remain the main drivers of financial markets. Let’s see how to use that in trading!  

Latest news

30.09.2022 17:02 Assets Won’t Survive This Week

As Europe moves into recession, next week may provide us with some amazing trading opportunities. Here they are!

23.09.2022 19:33 Post-Fed Releases for USD & CAD Traders

Main news that will drive the market in the upcoming week include CB Consumer Confidence Index, Canadian GDP, and US Core PCE Price Index

16.09.2022 16:55 FED and BOE Make Another Attempt to Beat Inflation

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.