The GBP is going to be volatile today, while USD/TRY may be looking for a retest of its highs. Read more!
Forex today: a lot of news
- The greenback is continuing to rise. The US dollar index has almost reached the level of $94. Good news on a trade war’s easing is supporting the upward movement.
- More information on the trade war’s issue. After 5-day negotiations in Washington, the US and China came to an agreement. Countries agreed to put trade tariffs on hold. Moreover, China plans to "significantly increase purchases" of U.S. goods. However, putting trade tensions on hold does not mean an end of the conflict. Let’s see how long the US and China will be loyal to each other.
- The euro continues its downward movement. EUR/USD is trading within 1.1680-1.1840. Italy still puts pressure on the single currency. Today, leaders of two coalition parties - the League and the 5 Star Movement - will meet with the Italian president to present their candidate on a position of a prime minister. Whether the president will approve the candidate, the Italian government’s formation will be closer to the end. However, it is not supposed to encourage the single currency a lot, as worries on the future policy of the new government still exist. The euro is anticipated to trade within 1.1680-1.1840.
- The pound is losing points ahead of the next round of Brexit negotiations. GBP/USD tested the support at 1.34. No important economic data will be released today. So if bears are stronger, the pair will break the support at 1.34. Otherwise, it will trade within 1.34-1.35. On Tuesday, the next round of Brexit talks will take place in Brussels. Last week was full of mixed news. Firstly, there were reports in the media that the UK is ready to stay tied to the customs union beyond 2021. Then, however, British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Thursday that Britain will leave the EU customs union after all. As we can see, the Tuesday’s round is supposed to be interesting. Moreover, inflation report hearings will be out on Tuesday at 12:00 MT time. The pound has chances to recover.
- The easing of the trade war’s tensions was supposed to support the aussie. However, the Australian currency could not gain momentum. AUD/USD is above the pivot point at 0.75 for the third day. No notable economic data are anticipated either on Monday or on Tuesday. If traders take into consideration trade war’s easing more seriously, the AUD/USD pair has chances to stay above the pivot point. Otherwise, the strong greenback will weigh on the AUD/USD’s movement and the pair will break the support (pivot point) at 0.75.
- The New Zealand dollar lost a chance to break above the pivot point at 0.69 because of the weak retail sales’ data (actual 0.1% vs forecast 1.0%). NZD/USD plunged below the support at 0.69 and is moving to the next one at 0.6850. No significant economic data are anticipated to be released in next few days, so, only the weaker greenback will be able to pull the NZD/USD pair back to the pivot point at 0.69.
- The NAFTA deal is under pressure. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that US president Donald Trump aims at a good deal and he doesn’t worry about any deadline. Moreover, it doesn’t mean that Mr. Trump will avoid withdrawal from the deal or any other action if he decides it’s the best option. Negotiations may continue until 2019. The comments appeared after Trump administration missed a deadline for finishing the agreement by May 17.
The USD/CAD pair was rising since Thursday till the beginning of this week. However, up to now, the Canadian dollar is rising against the US dollar. Maybe news on a possibility of any negotiations supported investors’ confidence in any progress in the deal. USD/CAD is moving to the support at 1.2850. Today is a bank holiday in Canada. As a result, no important data will be released. If bears are able to pull the pair below the support, the next aim is at 1.2825 (50-day MA). Otherwise, the pair will stay above 1.2850.
That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!
Australia will publish the level of employment change and the unemployment rate at 3:30 MT on October 17.
The escalation of the US-China trade dispute and the Brexit uncertainties keep affecting the market. Read more!
The reports that the UK and the EU are close to complete a draft Brexit deal have pushed the British pound higher.