Geopolitical News Influence Markets
Russian-Ukrainian conflict is influencing every economic aspect…
Forex today: gold, AUD/USD, and USD/JPY
Latest news
- Both China and the USA published encouraging numbers. China’s Caixin Services PMI beat all expectations. It rose to 54.3, while the forecast was 52.2. US ISM Services PMI jumped to 63.7, while analysts anticipated 58.3.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia, as expected, kept its policy unchanged. The central bank’s tone was optimistic as Australia’s economic recovery is faster than expected. As a result, AUD/USD modestly rose, but then lost its steam and dropped.
- Gold lifted up as US real yields dropped for the third time in four sessions. As a rule, falling yields push the USD down and gold up. But still gold should break above $1750 to rally up further.
- Google (Alphabet) was blamed for copyright violation as it used Oracle’s programming code, but all the charges were dropped. Thus, Google surged.
- Tesla jumped yesterday above $700 for the first time since mid-March as it had published better-than-expected car deliveries. However, it closed in red.
Technical analysis
The euro keeps weakening amid the poor vaccination rollout in Euro Area. EUR/USD is edging lower to the 50-period moving average at 1.1760. If it manages to break it, the way down to the key psychological mark of 1.1700 will be open. On the flip side, if it breaks through the 100-period moving average of 1.1835, it may jump to the next round number of 1.1900.
AUD/USD has bounced off the resistance of 0.7660. It’s moving down to the low of April 2 at 0.7600. If it breaks it, the way down to the low of April 1 at 0.7540 will be open. On the flip side, the breakout above 0.7660 will drive the pair to the upper trend line at 0.7700, which it’s unlikely to cross on the first try.
Gold is rising! It’s getting closer to the recent high of $1750. If it manages to cross it, the way up to the 50-day moving average of $1765 will be clear and then to $1810 at the 100-day moving average, if bulls keep momentum. However, it’s hard to believe that gold may rally so high as the overall trend is down. If the price breaks through the support of $1700, the way down to the low of March 30 at $1680 will be open.
Finally, let’s discuss USD/JPY. It has bounced off the 50-period moving average of 110.00. The breakout above 110.70 will drive the pair up to March highs of 111.00. Support levels are 110.00 and 109.50.
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The US NFP: What’s New?
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce average hourly earnings, nonfarm employment change (NFP), and the unemployment rate on July 8, at 15:30 MT time.
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The Federal Open Market Committee, a committee within the Federal Reserve, will reveal a detailed record of the central bank’s last meeting on July 6 at 21:00 MT.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its cash rate and make a statement about future rate policy on Tuesday, July 5, at 07:30 MT.
