News is what making the risk sentiment fragile today...
Forex today: Iran nuclear deal is on the arena
- Trump is to make a decision on the Iran deal on Tuesday at 21 MT time. Although most of the factors say the US will leave the deal, it can be some twists from Mr. Trump. Moreover, French President Mr. Macron, UK Prime minister Mrs. Merkel and UK Foreign Secretary Mr. Johnson appeal to US President not to tear up the deal.
- The oil market is continuing to rise. On Monday Brent and WTI reached the highest levels since the end of 2014. Although both benchmarks lost some points and could not stick at the top, prices remained the highest since the October 2017. On Tuesday, Brent and WTI are not showing an extensive trading, but maybe the decision of Mr. Trump will support the crude. Brent is near $75.50, WTI is at $70.
- The US dollar is steady. The greenback is trading near 92.60. As a result, there are no noticeable changes in the movement of other currencies.
- On Monday, the euro fell below 1.19 for the first time this year as German factory orders and euro zone investor sentiment showed a dramatic decline. The EUR/USD pair managed to rebound and end the trading day above 1.19, however, on Tuesday, the pair is moving to that level again. If the euro plunges below 1.19, the next support will lie at 1.1860.
- As geopolitical tensions are increasing because of the Iran deal, the yen is appreciating against the USD. On Monday, USD/JPY could not break the resistance at 109.27 and fell. The pair is moving to the 100-day MA (108.60) that will become a support. If the US do not leave the Iran deal, the pair will have chances to come back to the resistance at 109.27.
- The Australian dollar fell after the release of the retail sales’ data. The currency is moving to the support at 0.7480. Later this day at 12:30 MT time the annual budget release will be out. If the data is encouraging, the aussie will be able to move to the pivot point at 0.7530. If the release is weak, the pair will break the support at 0.7480 and move to the next one at 0.7420.
- The Canadian dollar highly depreciates against the US dollar. USD/CAD pair reached to resistance at 1.2945. If the pair breaks this level, the next resistance is at 1.30.
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