News on May 14

The week has started without outstanding movements.
USD is continuing to move down since the middle of the last week. No important data for the US dollar will be released today, so traders may expect the further fall of the greenback to 92. Tomorrow’s movement of USD will depend on a retail sales data (15:30 MT time). If the data is greater than the forecast, the US dollar will be able to recover. The weaker actual data will pull the US dollar down.
The euro is still moving up. EUR/USD is climbing to the resistance at 1.20. If the pair is able to break the resistance, the 200-day MA (1.2020) will be the next level to break. No noteworthy data for the single currency will be released on Monday and Tuesday. However, a progress in a forming of the Italian government may support the euro. Up to date, it seems like 5 Star Movement and the League party reached an agreement. In regard to the euro exit, currently, the parties do not favor it. If the Italian government is formed soon and the euro exit is placed on hold, the euro will get an additional support. If the US dollar’s data is stronger, the euro will come back to the support at 1.19.

On Monday, stocks in most Asian markets rose showing the biggest advance since February. US President Donald Trump tweeted that the US and China will work on a trade deal and will find a way to get one of China's biggest telecoms companies, ZTE, back into the business. ZTE was hit after the US Commerce department banned US companies from selling it components for 7 years.
An easing of the trade wars’ tensions boosts such currencies as the Australian dollar. The aussie is continuing its upward movement. The AUD/USD pair is trading above the weekly pivot point (0.75) and moving to the resistance at 0.76. No significant economic data for the aussie is anticipated neither today nor on Tuesday. However, on Tuesday, the RBA will release a detailed record of its most recent meeting (4:30 MT time). The central bank is dovish about the aussie, so comments may slightly affect the Australian currency in a negative way, so AUD/USD will come back to the support at 0.75.

After the last week’s rally oil is suffering a slight decline. Brent is near $76.70 (the last week’s high - $78); WTI is trading near $70.40 (last week’s high - $71.89). The further fall may be limited by a high possibility of the continuation of the Iran deal. UK PM Theresa May confirmed a commitment of the UK and its European partners to the ensuring of the nuclear deal with Iran. A meeting of UK, German, French and Iranian foreign ministers will be held on Tuesday in Brussels.

However, tensions around the Iranian deal still exist. On Sunday, the US threatened to impose sanctions on European companies that do business with Iran.

So oil will stay volatile depending on the results of the political actions.

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The Canadian dollar is under pressure as oil is suffering. Moreover, the forecast of Morgan Stanley is not reassuring. According to the bank, it is time to buy the USD/CAD pair. The aim is 1.3100; Stop-loss - 1.2510.

However, a progress in the NAFTA deal is in the offing. US lawmakers are optimistic about the deal, moreover, they want a deal by Thursday. So the loonie has chances to recover. Up to date, USD/CAD is standing still. No important data for the loonie will be released neither today nor on Tuesday. So the further movement will depend on the political announcements and the USD’s data.

Bitcoin is trading within the $8,000-$8,700 range limited by 50-day and 100-day MA. On Monday, a blockchain conference Consensus 2018 is starting to work. According to the forecast of Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors Head of Research, the cryptocurrency may rise to $15,000 after the conference. So let’s see whether the conference will have such an effect.

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