The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.
Forex today: markets are on holidays
- Oil is rising because of the drop in the US drilling activity.
WTI is slightly above $65.12 a barrel, Brent is climbing to $70.However, the oil market is still under pressure because of the concerns about the US-Iran nuclear deal and trade wars’ worries.
- The US dollar is a little bit lower today. Investors are waiting for ISM Manufacturing PMI data (17:00 MT time). The forecast is already lower than the previous data, if the actual one will be weaker than the forecast, it will push the greenback down.
Moreover, trade wars’ tensions are still an answered question.
- Today’s Tankan manufacturing index and non-manufacturing index data appeared to be weaker for the first time in two years. Large Japanese manufacturers displayed a concern because of the strong yen that negatively affects manufacturers.
The yen has left a few points but remained near 106. Let’s look if the US dollar finds a support to break the resistance at 106.50.
- The Australian dollar could not take an advantage of the US dollar’s weakness and lost some points. The AUD/USD pair is not showing a big movement because today is a bank holiday in Australia and New Zealand. However, we may see changes tomorrow and more likely they will not be in favor of the Aussie as the RBA is anticipated to keep the interest rate on hold (7:30 MT time). But let’s see, maybe we will hear something encouraging from Mr. Lowe.
- Bitcoin is standing still for the third day. The cryptocurrency managed to cross above the psychological level of $7,000, however, the break was not expansive. Maybe the first quarter’s results affected bitcoin. SEC’s restrictions, social networks’ bans, cryptocurrency exchanges’ hacking, and bitcoin futures had a negative impact on bitcoin during the quarter.
- As the US dollar is depreciating, all major currencies are catching a chance to strengthen their positions. There is no important data today. Moreover, do not forget that some markets are still on holidays. So trading volumes are anticipated to be low.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.