What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
Forex today: the USD is lower and lower
- Traders will look at the G7 summit that will take place on June 8-9 in Quebec to get clues on the world economic growth. However, there are worries about a G7 statement. The France President Mr. Macron has signaled that a progress on tariffs, Iran nuclear agreement and Paris climate accord must be made before he'll be willing to sign a joint statement. Let’s see whether an agreement will be achieved.
- The US dollar index continues its downward movement. It is trading below $93.30. The next support lies at $93. No important economic data will be released today. As a result, the further fall is anticipated.
- The pound continues to rise. On Wednesday, GBP/USD managed to close above 1.34. Up to now, the pair has tested the next resistance at 1.3460. 50-week MA weighs on the pair. No more important economic data will be released either today or tomorrow. As a result, there is a risk that GBP/USD won’t be able to break the resistance. A pullback to the pivot point at 1.33 may be anticipated.
- Today’s Australian trade balance data was at the same level as anticipated (0.98B), however, it didn’t support the AUD. The AUD/USD pair couldn’t break the resistance at 0.7660 again, 100-week MA weighs on it. Up to now, the pair is moving to the support at 0.7640. No more significant economic data will be released today. As a result, the fall may continue.
- Oil goes down as crude oil inventories data was greater than anticipated (2.1M vs -2.0M). 50-hour MA doesn’t let Brent go up. However, the trading isn’t extensive. Brent is anticipated to trade within $74.60-76.65. WTI couldn’t break the resistance at $65.20 (100-day MA) and it’s moving down. The support lies at $64.60. An interesting comment on future oil prices. According to an analyst of the Andurand Commodities Fund, oil can reach the level of $100 this year and $150 in 2020-2021. The point is that oil traded at $100, and even $150 in a much weaker economic environment of 2008.
- As a result, the Canadian dollar is unstable. USD/CAD trading isn’t extensive. Oil weigh on the CAD, at the same time, the US dollar is weakening. Traders will take into consideration a speech of the BOC Governor Mr. Poloz (18:15 MT time). If the Governor gives any positive clues on the future monetary policy, the CAD will appreciate. The support is at 1.2930 (50.0 Fibo level). Otherwise, the USD/CAD pair will go up. The resistance is at 1.2975.
- Bitcoin is near the resistance at $7,600 again. 50-day MA is crossing the 100-day MA. It’s a positive signal for the cryptocurrency. If Bitcoin is able to break the resistance, the further aim is at $8,000.
That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!
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The Bank of England will publish a monetary policy statement and update on the interest rate on Thursday, at 14:00 MT time.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a meeting and announce changes to the monetary policy on August 3, at 07:30 MT time (GMT+3).