It will be the hottest week of September, with four central banks’ meetings, five PMI releases, and a lot to trade.
Forex today: the weakening dollar changed markets’ movement
- Although the US dollar index is still near its highest levels since January 2018, it lost some points. As a result, other currencies managed to recover versus the USD. Today a lot of US economic data will be released. If most of them are positive, the greenback will be able to make new records.
- The euro is appreciating against the US dollar ahead of the ECB meeting (14:45 MT time). Expectations for the speech of the ECB President are mixed. If Mr. Draghi sounds cautious, the euro may plunge below the support at 1.2152. But if the central bank President is optimistic enough, the single currency will be able to reach the resistance at 1.2220.
However, there is no doubt, the market will be highly volatile.
- Some news on Brexit deal appeared and the pound has gained some points. UK Prime Minister Theresa May plans to present a 50-page dossier of demands to Brussel. But the GBP/USD pair is below the pivot point. If the pair is able to break this level, the next resistance will be at 1.3975. However, no important data for the pound is anticipated today. So the support is at 1.39.
- Wednesday discouraging speech of the BOC Governor Mr. Poloz did not affect the loonie a lot as it was almost the same as on Monday. Moreover, yesterday USD/CAD closed below the resistance at 1.2870 and today the pair is suffering. A trade is not extensive, so the pair still has chances to return to the resistance if the US dollar is able to recover.
- As the greenback is weakening, the USD/JPY pair rebounded. Yesterday the pair closed above the resistance at 109.30 (the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud), however, could not reach the next aim at 109.70. Tomorrow the Bank of Japan will release the monetary policy statement. Although it is not a surprise that the central bank aims at the continuation of the accommodative policy, the BOJ Governor may give clues on the future monetary policy. The resistance lies at 109.70, the support is at 109.
- Despite the fact that crude oil inventories data showed a big surplus (2.2M actual vs -1.6M forecast), oil is rising. WTI is above $68 a barrel, Brent is near $74.40. The reason may be hidden in a comment of French President Mr. Macron. According to it, US President Mr. Trump is not going to stay in the Iran nuclear deal. Clouds are piling up over the Middle East.
- Bitcoin reached the highest level since the middle of March (in a range of $9,700), but could not stick to it and plunged to $8,850. Yesterday the bearish engulfing candlestick was formed that signals a bearish reversal. The support is at $8,000.
That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!
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