Inflation data is the most important indicator that affects the central bank’s monetary policy.
Forex today: USD recovered, other currencies fell
- The US dollar managed to gain a foothold. After a 3-day fall, the US dollar index turned around and closed Monday’s trading positively. On Tuesday, the Index is trading around 92.60. Traders are waiting for retail sales’ data that will be released at 15:30 MT time. If actual figures are greater than forecast ones, the greenback will get an additional boost and will move to the previous highs. However, weaker data may put pressure on the US currency.
As the US dollar managed to strengthen, other currencies lost momentum.
- The pound is continuing to trade above 200-day moving average that does not let GBP/USD to break the pivot point at 1.3540. Average Earnings Index will be out today at 11:30 MT time. If the data is greater than forecast, the GBP/USD pair will not break the support at 1.3540. Otherwise, it will go to the next support at 1.3450.
- The US dollar is continuing to appreciate against the Japanese yen. USD/JPY is near 110. As no significant data for the yen is anticipated and the US dollar is rising, there is an odd that the pair will break the resistance at 110 and will move further. Moreover, according to a Reuters poll, the BOJ is anticipated to end the quantitative easing policy slower as it still fails to reach its inflation target.
- As anticipated, RBA’s meeting minutes did not support the Australian dollar. Deputy Governor of the RBA said that a board does not see "strong case" for a near-term rate rise. Nothing new, but AUD/USD is continuing to move down. The pair is near the pivot point at 0.75. If it falls lower this level, the next support will lie at 0.7450. One issue that can support the currency is trade wars’ easing. China’s top economic official will arrive in Washington on Tuesday for a 5-day trade discussion. However, a forecast is not encouraging. According to the US ambassador to China, the US and China “still very far apart” on trade. If the negotiation does not have a progress, the Aussie will fall further. However, any clues on the trade war’s easing will pull the aussie up.
- Oil is slightly falling again. On Monday, Brent gained momentum and set a new record ($78.53), WTI was not so successful but rose too. Tuesday did not start so positive, both oil benchmarks lost some points. Brent is near $78.20, WTI is trading slightly lower $71. However, Goldman Sachs stays bullish on oil. According to the bank, the rise is based on inventories that are now well below the 5-year average and are expected to continue the fall through the year-end. The bank increased upside risks to $82.5 per barrel summer oil price target.
That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!
Although yesterday the US dollar index closed at the low level comparing to the daily movement, today it has been moving up again.
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