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French surge will bounce back after protest-powered deceleration
French surge should regain early in 2019 after wild anti-government riots as well as wilting business confidence cut short a previously anticipated year-end revival. That’s what the INSEE stats agency informed.
The euro zone's number two economy is on course to leap just 0.2% for the final three months of 2018 in contrast with 0.4% recorded in the third quarter.
INSEE had earlier foreseen surge of 0.4% in the final quarter because the French economy bounced off from a poor start to the year. Nevertheless, it reduced its estimate, predicting the protests would eat up 0.1% points off quarterly surge, with milder business confidence accounting for the rest of the update.
However, before the riots, business confidence had been deteriorating against the backdrop of international trade clashes.
As a result for the entire 2018, INSEE predicted surge of 1.5%, updated downwards from 1.6% in its earlier outlook in October and also down from a decade-long maximum of 2.3% in 2017.
Looking ahead to 2019, in the first quarter, INSEE forecast surge would bounce off 0.4% percent because consumer spending revived after a dismal end to this year.
Surge was anticipated to decline to 0.3% in the second quarter.
A great number of retailers have had to close shops on key year-end shopping days due to the fact riots initially against fuel-tax lifts escalated in November and this month.
The protests rapidly evolved into powerful riots against the high-cost of living, thus making the country’s leader Emmanuel Macron announce a pack of measures for poor employees and pensioners.
Eventually, those measures, include wage hikes for the poorest employees along with a tax trim for most pensioner, would back consumer spending in 2019, although it wasn’t clear by how much.
Even without those measures, surge in households' real disposable income was anticipated to catch up at the end of 2018 after a dive in payroll contributions.
All attention on the market is on the Brexit process. Fears over the no-deal Brexit pushed the British pound deep down yesterday after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson claimed he was ready to abandon negotiations.
The market sentiment is mixed, and the US dollar is trading near the lowest levels for over two years. Let’s have a look at the main market movements today.
S&P 500 skyrocketed to the all-time high on optimism that Biden’s fiscal stimulus will support economic growth and boost corporate earnings.
PMI reports from the EU, the UK, and the USA will be released during the day!
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.