The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
Fresh highs in the oil market
- The US dollar has started the third consecutive day on a positive footing. The catalyst was progressing US stimulus talks. Negotiations between US President Joe Biden and Republican senators continue.
- Stocks are rising as well due to the earnings season. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 surged after Alphabet and Amazon published better-than-expected revenues.
- Elsewhere, stocks are rising as speculative trades popular with Reddit crowds crumble. It gives more stability to markets, so investors feel safe.
- Silver tries to regain its losses after a 10% slide from an eight-year high. GameStop plunged as bears have started covering their positions.
- New Zealand reported encouraging labor data, which underpinned the New Zealand dollar.
- Oil traded at its highest levels in over a year due to OPEC+ supply cuts and optimism over the vaccine rollout. Crude Oil Inventories will be out at 17:30 MT time, and OPEC meetings will be held as well today. Therefore, increased volatility in the oil market is expected.
The most traded pair is falling. All the moving averages are in descending order, which confirms the current downtrend. Now EUR/USD is heading towards the key psychological mark of 1.2000. The move below it will drive the pair down to the next round number of 1.1950. On the flip side, the move above the intraday high of 1.2050 will push the pair to yesterday’s high of 1.2090.
The kiwi rose on the positive job data, but the upside is limited by the high of January 26 at 0.7250. It has failed to cross this level a few times already, so we can expect that the pair may bounce off again as the USD is quite strong and the pair is forming lower lows. Support levels are 0.7150 and 0.7100.
The British pound has approached the key support of 1.3650, which it has been unable to break so many times this year. If it manages to cross it this time, the way down to the 200-period moving average of 1.3600 will be clear. Resistance levels are 1.3700 and 1.3750.
USD/JPY has just broken through the psychological mark of 105.00, clearing the way up to the 200-day moving average at 105.60. The pair isn’t likely to cross it on the first try. So, when it reaches 105.60, the pullback is expected. Support levels are 104.50 and 104.60.
US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
The crypto market keeps recovering. Bitcoin has broken above $57,000. The way up to $60,000 is open now!
The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
Canada will publish the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on October 22, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).