The oil price looks optimistic. What are the reasons?
Get ready for FOMC meeting
The US Fed Funds Rate announcement and Press Conference will be at 21:00 MT on January 29.
During its December session, the US Federal Reserve left the target range for the country interest rate at 1.5-1.75%. This was exactly what the market had expected, so the audience received this outcome as natural and was reassured that the rate will stay most probably unchanged in 2020. Intending to keep the rate at the current level until there is a major indication to do otherwise, the Fed enters a dilemma. On the one hand, Donald Trump keeps blaming Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a high interest rate and pushing to cut it “down to zero” to make the US more competitive. On the other hand, there have been concerns voiced out that the already low rate may lead to financial misbalance. What strategic line will the Fed choose for 2020?
- If the US Fed expresses more dovish tones, the USD will fall;
- If the US Fed expresses more hawkish tones, the USD will rise
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.