The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Gold and USD ahead of the Fed
Good day, traders! Yesterday, the release of the US Inflation rate came out lower than the forecasts (0.1% vs. 0.3%). The soft figures pulled the US dollar index down by almost 1%. At the same time, S&P500, EURUSD, and gold strengthened. Today, the Fed will hold a meeting at 21:00 GMT+3. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points. At the same time, traders will be extremely focused on the insights about further monetary policy decisions and economic outlook, as the Fed may signal a higher peak than previously forecast.
US FOMC Statement and Interest Rate Decision - 21:00 GMT+2
FOMC Press Conference - 21:30 GMT+2
Gold awaits volatility
The price of gold tested the resistance at 1825 but then corrected lower yesterday. Now, it may retest the 50-period SMA on H4 at 1790. The price formed a bearish divergence with RSI, which confirms a possibility of a slide to 1790. On the upside, the resistance is placed at 1825.
Other important news:
- The inflation in the UK fell from 11.1% to 10.7% amid lower oil prices. Combined with lower-than-expected inflation, this factor pushed GBPUSD toward June’s high.
- A Bahamian judge denied the FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried bail on Tuesday after he was accused of violating campaign laws and embezzling billions of dollars.
- According to the foreign minister of Hungary, the EU energy ministers have not agreed yet on the gas price ceiling.
- The number of withdrawals from Binance reached $1.9 billion in the past 24 hours after the world’s biggest crypto exchange temporarily paused withdrawals of USDC stablecoin. Meanwhile, the US Congress is considering the crypto consumer protection bill that Sam Bankman-Fried backed before FTX collapsed.
Take advantage of the market and good luck!
The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a statement and release a Cash Rate on February 7, 05:30 GMT+2. It's among the primary tools the RBA uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.