Gold surges to $1600 per ounce on US-Iran escalation.

Missiles landing, plane crashing

Missiles have landed today at US airbases in Iraq. This was Iranian retaliation for the killing of elite Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani by American forces. Another piece of news was that a plane bound to Ukraine crashed in Iran with all passengers and staff dying. No surprise, gold rose to $1,600 as investors seek refuge and hedge their risks against market drawdowns.

Broader consequences

$1,600 may not be the end of it. Analysts at Goldman Sachs say that gold may reach $1,625 this quarter if the Middle East crisis persists. Notice though that even this forecast may be too modest: if the price fixes above the Fibonacci level at $1,585, the next one will be as high as at $1,730 – that’s $145 above the current price!

What's next

The US President Donald Trump did not specify the losses of the US bases. On the contrary, he tweeted “so far, so good!” and promised to give a speech today. Hence, this seems to be the major event to look forward to. At this moment, gold is correcting to the downside a bit, but the situation has all the prerequisites to put further pressure down on the USD and keep pushing the precious metal higher. The medium-term outlook for gold will remain positive as along as the price remains above the 2019 high at $1,557. Therefore, it’s a good moment to buy the precious metal and look forward to what the US president says.

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Gaspar Markosyan

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