Market Crash Incoming?
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
Gold rose, USD/CAD and USD/JPY dropped
Latest news:
- The earnings season is underway! Today, AT&T will publish its earnings at 15:30 MT (GMT+3), while Intel will show its Q1 performance after the market closes at the midnight (MT/GMT+3).
- Crude Oil Inventories came out worse than expected and pushed oil down. Inventories rose by 0.6 million barrels, while the forecast was for the drop of 3.7 million. The increase in supply is a negative factor for oil prices.
- The Bank of Canada was hawkish yesterday, which is good for the Canadian dollar. The central bank left rates unchanged, but cut asset purchases by 1 billion Canadian dollars. Besides, the BOC shifted the rate hike from 2023 to the second half of 2022. The Bank of Canada was the first major central bank that tightens the policy so far after the coronavirus.
- Today all eyes on the European Central Bank. The bank is expected to leave everything unchanged, but still, it’s an important event to follow as the tone of the bank may offer some hints.
Tech analysis
EUR/USD is moving in a downtrend in the long term, but the short-term trend is upward. Today, the ECB meeting may increase the volatility. If the price manages to cross the recent high of 1.2080, it may rally up to the next resistance of 1.2175, which lies at January-February highs. However, if it crosses the support of 1.2000, it may fall to the low of April 19 at 1.1960.
Gold has broken through the resistance of $1790 and retraced to it. It should be just a natural sell-off after the breakout. Thus, gold may rally up further to the late February highs of $1815. However, if it drops below $1790, it may fall to yesterday’s low of $1775.
USD/CAD is steadily moving down in the long term. Yesterday, the hawkish move of the Bank of Canada underpinned the CAD and thus pushed USD/CAD down. If it manages to drop below the recent low of 1.2475, it may fall to the low of March 16 at 1.2435. The upside is limited moving averages at 1.2537 and 1.2555.
Finally, let’s discuss USD/JPY. It has failed to cross the middle line of Bollinger Bands several times already. Thus, we might expect that this will happen again and the price reverses down from 108.15. But if it manages to cross it, the way up to the upper trend line of 108.50 will be open. If it breaks the lower line of Bollinger Bands at 107.85, the way down to the next round number of 107.50 will be open.
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