Today traders await the European Central Bank to make a policy statement at 14:45 MT (GMT+3).
Greatest fall in history of China’s GDP
China’s gross domestic product shrank by 6.8%. It’s the lowest level that was witnessed since 1992, notably the start of official reports.
What does it mean? Are things so bad in China?
Not really! It wasn’t a surprise for anybody as the country had the national lockdown. Actually, the GDP releases quarterly. So, let’s look at more recent data. The March industrial output showed the signs of recovery. It fell only by 1.1%, 7 times less than expected! This is an encouraging rate.
“First in – first out”, commented the Chief China Economist. According to him, 90% of factories are fully operational now.
Also the 800 billion dollar stimulus package is on the way to support the economy as investments decreased by 16.1%.
Ok, suppliers are back to work. What about consumers?
Here’s the problem. Retail sales plummeted by 15.8%. Consumers are not ready to spend their money yet. Even if they are ready, there is the social distancing restriction, that makes shopping or eating in a restaurant unworthy. However, these tough rules will be eased soon. It’s expected that the consumer behavior will be normalized to the third quarter of 2020. Moreover, the external demand is quite low too as other countries are still on lockdowns.
Don’t miss the chance to gain!
After the China’s GDP release USD/CNH rose sharply from 7.06935 to 7.08430. Recent highs are 7.08915 and 7.09365.
AUD/USD fell from 0.6383 to 0.63245 because of the poor Chinese GDP data. The recent bottom line is on 0.62665.
Oil dropped to the lows unseen since late May. Bitcoin has dropped below $30,000, while gold has reversed up from a dip under $1,800.
Australian monthly retail sales will be announced at 04:30 MT time (GMT+3) on Wednesday, July 21. T
The overall market sentiment is risk-on. The S&P 500 index (US 500) is getting close to the all-time high. Oil is recovering quickly from its recent losses.
What will happen? The FOMC statement will be published at 21:00 MT (GMT+3) on Wednesday, July 28…
PMI reports from the EU, the UK, and the USA will be released during the day!