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Greatest fall in history of China’s GDP
China’s gross domestic product shrank by 6.8%. It’s the lowest level that was witnessed since 1992, notably the start of official reports.
What does it mean? Are things so bad in China?
Not really! It wasn’t a surprise for anybody as the country had the national lockdown. Actually, the GDP releases quarterly. So, let’s look at more recent data. The March industrial output showed the signs of recovery. It fell only by 1.1%, 7 times less than expected! This is an encouraging rate.
“First in – first out”, commented the Chief China Economist. According to him, 90% of factories are fully operational now.
Also the 800 billion dollar stimulus package is on the way to support the economy as investments decreased by 16.1%.
Ok, suppliers are back to work. What about consumers?
Here’s the problem. Retail sales plummeted by 15.8%. Consumers are not ready to spend their money yet. Even if they are ready, there is the social distancing restriction, that makes shopping or eating in a restaurant unworthy. However, these tough rules will be eased soon. It’s expected that the consumer behavior will be normalized to the third quarter of 2020. Moreover, the external demand is quite low too as other countries are still on lockdowns.
Don’t miss the chance to gain!
After the China’s GDP release USD/CNH rose sharply from 7.06935 to 7.08430. Recent highs are 7.08915 and 7.09365.
AUD/USD fell from 0.6383 to 0.63245 because of the poor Chinese GDP data. The recent bottom line is on 0.62665.
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The European Central Bank is holding a meeting on April 22 at 14:45 MT time. What to watch?
The Bank of Canada (BOC) will publish the rate statement and the update on the interest rate on April 21, at 17:00 MT time.