The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
Here’s what major banks expect from NFP
NFP is going out at 15:30 MT today. Let’s see what major banks forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls. The market consensus is 647,000. As a rule, if the NFP is greater than the forecasts, the USD will rise. In case of an alternative scenario, expect a fall of the USD. While waiting for the release, check out the strategy for trading on NFP.
“We forecast NFP to rise 750K versus consensus 600K. The unemployment rate is also expected to dip to 5.9/6.0% from 6.2%.”
“We are expecting a +800K increase in NFP as many states reopen or scale back lockdown measures, and this would be the strongest monthly job growth since August.” However, Deutsche Bank mentioned that “even if the +800k growth were realised, that would still leave the total number of NFP more than 8.6 M beneath its pre-Covid-19 pandemic peak”.
TDS is really optimistic!
“We forecast a 1.0M rise in payrolls in this week's report for March. That said, payrolls are likely to remain well below the pre-pandemic level for a while, even with booming monthly readings. As of February 2021, payrolls were down 9.5 M from the February 2020 level.”
“Citi expectations are close to consensus at 600K. While inflation data is receiving most of the attention, we think the Federal Reserve could be on-track to taper if job growth averages 500K+.”
As you can see, the forecasts are all optimistic, some more – some less. Follow the report at 15:30 MT. To get the actual numbers of NFP – check our economic calendar.
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
What will happen? BOC will report its Monetary Policy statement at 17:00 MT (GMT+3) on Wednesday, October 27…
What will happen? Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce Core PCE Price Index at 03:30 MT (GMT+3) on Wednesday, October 27…
Last week was full of surprises! Stock indices have shown significant growth…