What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
Here’s what major banks expect from NFP
NFP is going out at 15:30 MT today. Let’s see what major banks forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls. The market consensus is 647,000. As a rule, if the NFP is greater than the forecasts, the USD will rise. In case of an alternative scenario, expect a fall of the USD. While waiting for the release, check out the strategy for trading on NFP.
“We forecast NFP to rise 750K versus consensus 600K. The unemployment rate is also expected to dip to 5.9/6.0% from 6.2%.”
“We are expecting a +800K increase in NFP as many states reopen or scale back lockdown measures, and this would be the strongest monthly job growth since August.” However, Deutsche Bank mentioned that “even if the +800k growth were realised, that would still leave the total number of NFP more than 8.6 M beneath its pre-Covid-19 pandemic peak”.
TDS is really optimistic!
“We forecast a 1.0M rise in payrolls in this week's report for March. That said, payrolls are likely to remain well below the pre-pandemic level for a while, even with booming monthly readings. As of February 2021, payrolls were down 9.5 M from the February 2020 level.”
“Citi expectations are close to consensus at 600K. While inflation data is receiving most of the attention, we think the Federal Reserve could be on-track to taper if job growth averages 500K+.”
As you can see, the forecasts are all optimistic, some more – some less. Follow the report at 15:30 MT. To get the actual numbers of NFP – check our economic calendar.
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The Bank of England will publish a monetary policy statement and update on the interest rate on Thursday, at 14:00 MT time.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a meeting and announce changes to the monetary policy on August 3, at 07:30 MT time (GMT+3).