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NFP is going out at 15:30 MT today. Let’s see what major banks forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls. The market consensus is 647,000. As a rule, if the NFP is greater than the forecasts, the USD will rise. In case of an alternative scenario, expect a fall of the USD. While waiting for the release, check out the strategy for trading on NFP.
“We forecast NFP to rise 750K versus consensus 600K. The unemployment rate is also expected to dip to 5.9/6.0% from 6.2%.”
“We are expecting a +800K increase in NFP as many states reopen or scale back lockdown measures, and this would be the strongest monthly job growth since August.” However, Deutsche Bank mentioned that “even if the +800k growth were realised, that would still leave the total number of NFP more than 8.6 M beneath its pre-Covid-19 pandemic peak”.
“We forecast a 1.0M rise in payrolls in this week's report for March. That said, payrolls are likely to remain well below the pre-pandemic level for a while, even with booming monthly readings. As of February 2021, payrolls were down 9.5 M from the February 2020 level.”
“Citi expectations are close to consensus at 600K. While inflation data is receiving most of the attention, we think the Federal Reserve could be on-track to taper if job growth averages 500K+.”
As you can see, the forecasts are all optimistic, some more – some less. Follow the report at 15:30 MT. To get the actual numbers of NFP – check our economic calendar.
The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
Happy Wednesday, traders! We went through the Internet and found the best news for you, take a look!
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
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