The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
How bad will US PMI be?
The US PMI will be released on May 1 at 17:00 MT.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CNH, USD/CAD
The US Manufacturing PMI reveals the survey of 400 purchasing managers, who rate current business conditions. If the PMI is above 50.0, it will indicate the industry expansion, below – the industry contraction. It’s clear that PMI will plummet amid the national lockdown. Analysts forecast the US PMI to drop to 37 in April and that would not be the bottom. However, the US dollar is not supposed to be sensitive to this drop as it plays a role of a safe-haven currency these days. That’s why USD won’t fall so deep as the US PMI.
If PMI is greater than it was expected, USD will typically increase, otherwise – decrease.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.