How Can US NFP Shock This Time?

How Can US NFP Shock This Time?

What will happen?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish average hourly earnings, nonfarm employment change (NFP), and the unemployment rate on April 1, 2022. The organization publishes the data monthly, usually on the first Friday of the month. Average hourly earnings and nonfarm payrolls exclude the farming industry because it’s seasonal. The unemployment rate is an essential indicator of overall economic health that helps analysts assess the US economic situation.

Possible USD moves

Every month the US unemployment rate is getting closer and closer to the pre-pandemic times, which is a good sign. However, some cities, for example, New York, are still struggling with a 7.6% unemployment rate. So, even if the situation is improving in general, some economically influential cities, in particular, can give unexpectedly negative results. The release from March 4 was a little lower-than-expected, 3.8% vs. 3.9%.

As for NFP, the result was much better than expected, 678K vs. 406K. The results influenced the USD positively. The US currency was rising for the several following trading days.


How to trade on the US NFP release?

If NFP is higher than expected, the USD will rise. If NFP is lower than expected, the USD will fall. The unemployment rate situation is the opposite: the lower the indicator, the better for the US currency.

  • If actual numbers of NFP beat expectations, then the USD will go up.
  • Otherwise, it will fall.

Check the Economic Calendar.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF.


Can the UK CPI surprise?
Can the UK CPI surprise?

The UK Office for National Statistics will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, May 18, at 09:00 MT.

The US Retail Sales Update
The US Retail Sales Update

The US Census Bureau will announce Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales on Tuesday, May 17 at 15:30 MT.

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