The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
How does the American CPI reflect the virus impact?
On Wednesday, the US monthly inflation will be announced at 14:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD
In the last four months, inflation in the US hasn’t been deviating from 2.3%, which must reflect the stability of the US economic expansion and the Fed’s monetary policy. This time inflation may tell much about the current situation. Primarily, coronavirus may cool down the US economic expansion lowering the internal consumption and slowing the production process. If that’s the case, inflation will become subdued. And that will be a preliminary indicator of how indeed the virus outbreak impacts the US economy and the USD. That, in turn, should contribute a lot to the US Fed’s rate decision on March 18.
- If the inflation is stable, the USD may be supported.
- If the inflation is lower than expected, the USD may be suppressed.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.