What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
How to trade EUR after the ECB rate statement?
The European Central Bank will publish the main refinancing rate and make a statement on Thursday, June 4, at 14:45 MT time. Also, the ECB press conference will be later at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, EUR/CAD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF
Analysts give 99% that the main refinancing rate will stay unchanged. Traders should focus on the ECB statement and the press conference. The central bank will reveal the market overview and give its forecast. It’s important what officials think about the future recovery as it will drive EUR. The central bank’s main weakness is a risky nature of its debt. However, the ECB with Merkel and Macron tackled it and unleashed a 750 billion-euro emergency asset-purchase program with 500 billion as grants and the rest as loans. It helped to prevent borrowing costs from going out of control. Economists expect the program to be topped up.
If the ECB leaves everything unchanged or expands quantitative easing, EUR may fall.
If the ECB increases the size of the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) or targeted longer term refinancing operations (LTRO), EUR can rise.
EUR/USD retraced to 1.1870 after breaking out this level. It should be just a natural sell-off ahead of the further rally up.
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The Bank of England will publish a monetary policy statement and update on the interest rate on Thursday, at 14:00 MT time.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a meeting and announce changes to the monetary policy on August 3, at 07:30 MT time (GMT+3).