The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
How to trade on August 25?
The overall sentiment remains upbeat amid vaccine hopes and improved US-China relationships. US and China authorities had a phone call and claimed that some progress has already been made and they will continue negotiating. The USA recorded yesterday the lowest amount of new cases in over two months, that also encourages the market.
As a result, stocks rose on the current optimism. S&P 500 has surged to fresh highs. It is trading above the key resistance of 3 500. If it manages to cross it, the stock index may jump to 3 550. On the flip side, if it falls below 3 415, it may slump even deeper to 3 400.
Let’s move on to The overall sentiment remains upbeat amid vaccine hopes and improved US-China relationships. Let's have a closer look.. The price is just above the key support of 1.1800. The move below this level will drive the price to the Friday’s low of 1.1770. Otherwise, if it soars above 50 moving average on the 4-hour chart, it will clear the way towards 1.1880. Follow the US consumer confidence report today at 17:00 MT time as it will add some fresh volatility to the market.
Let’s discuss gold. It’s stuck in a range between $1 925 and $1 950. If it escapes this range breaking through its top, it may surge to the high of August 14 of $1 960. Otherwise, if it breaks down the bottom of the range, it may fall even deeper to $1 910.
The Bank of Japan released its core CPI of 0.0%, that was worse analysts’ expectations of 0.1%. Therefore, USD/JPY rose sharply. If it breaks out the high of august 3 at 106.30, it may jump to the next resistance of 106.60. Support levels are at 106.00 and 105.80.
Finally, let’s talk about AUD/USD. The risk-on currency has modestly reacted to the upbeat sentiment. If it rises above the yesterday high of 0.7200, it will surge to the high of August 6 at 0.7235. Otherwise, if it drops below the Friday’s low of 0.7150, it may slump even deeper to 0.7110.
Follow the report of US consumer confidence at 17:00 MT time!
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.