The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
How will the jobs data affect the AUD?
The Australian jobs data is announced on Thursday at 03:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD, AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD
The Australian jobs data is as important for the AUD as the NFP is to the USD. Employment in Australia has been rising since late spring. In May, the rate was 58.2 – that was the rock bottom of the virus crisis. Then, it gradually started to rise to eventually come to the current 60.3 in August. That means, the economic recovery is taking place in Australia, and the labor market is responding to that. So as long as the figures are above the expectation, the AUD will rise. Otherwise, it may lose the optimistic vibe. We will see what we have for September.
- If the figures are better than the forecast, it will boost the AUD.
- If the figures are worse than thought, the AUD will go down.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.