The Fed can start tapering already this November, oil is rallying pushing the Canadian dollar up! Jump in to know more!
Important events this week will bring us
Between two fires
This week is likely to be the result of the two strategic market drivers.
On the one hand, the US-China phase-one trade deal is expected to be sealed on January 15. Hence, the markets are looking forward to having the confirmation that nothing changes with respect to that. If so, that will enhance the overall investors’ mood.
On the other hand, the unexpected (or just another escalating) turn in the US-Iran relations puts the entire Middle East map on fire. That, in turn, puts the world’s economy into a global warming state. The risk of a negative scenario in the region supports the oil, gold and safe-haven currency prices, putting the rest of the market under pressure down.
Consequently, the opposition of these two strategic factors will provide the canvas for the local events this week. There will be not many, but some are worth mentioning.
Economic activity and jobs data in Canada
The Purchasing Managers Index will be released by the Ivey Business School at 17:00 MT time on Tuesday. For Canada, it is a primary indicator expressing the economic activity as reported by over 150 respective managers from the major companies across the country. A better-than-expected report will support the CAD.
The same will happen if Canada provides positive jobs data on Friday. The employment rate and unemployment change will be released at 15:30 MT time on January 10, at the same time of the NFP release.
Consumer confidence in Japan
On Wednesday, Japan will release its consumer confidence indicator at 07:00 MT time. In the last months, the country households have been sharing a consistently improved situation and outlooks, different from the declining trend throughout most of 2019. If the January 8 release adds another step into the upward indicator curve, the JPY will gain strength.
Business confidence in Europe
On Wednesday as well, the European Business Climate Indicator will be released at 12:00 MT time. Throughout the entire year 2019, this indicator has been declining, showing the negative values for the last three months. Although not a 100% outcome, market disappointment is a very possible scenario. If the BCI comes lower than the forecasts, the EUR will be under pressure down.
The last but not the least – in fact, most importantly, the Non-Farm payrolls will be provided at 15:30 MT time on Friday. As usual, the American labor authorities will present the figures in line with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. The picture released in December was unexpectedly good, so the market lowered its expectations for the January 10 release. However, if the data surprises the observers another time, the USD will grow.
Germany, the leading economy in the Euro Zone, will reveal one of the key economic indicators – German Ifo Business Climate on September 24 at 11:00 MT time.
That day has come, guys! The Fed will hold a meeting at 21:00 GMT+3. It can be a highly impactful event. The markets expect the bank to hint about the timing of tapering.
Commodities (iron ore, oil) and commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD) surged. West Texas Intermediate has reached $75 a barrel, while Brent rose to the highest mark since October 2018.
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Turkey’s central bank governor was at a crossroads: to hold interest rates and take a risk to be fired like it was for three governors before him, or to comply with the president, to cut rates, and to risk the market. Let’s find out, how to react to the rate cut.