Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
Important events this week will bring us
Between two fires
This week is likely to be the result of the two strategic market drivers.
On the one hand, the US-China phase-one trade deal is expected to be sealed on January 15. Hence, the markets are looking forward to having the confirmation that nothing changes with respect to that. If so, that will enhance the overall investors’ mood.
On the other hand, the unexpected (or just another escalating) turn in the US-Iran relations puts the entire Middle East map on fire. That, in turn, puts the world’s economy into a global warming state. The risk of a negative scenario in the region supports the oil, gold and safe-haven currency prices, putting the rest of the market under pressure down.
Consequently, the opposition of these two strategic factors will provide the canvas for the local events this week. There will be not many, but some are worth mentioning.
Economic activity and jobs data in Canada
The Purchasing Managers Index will be released by the Ivey Business School at 17:00 MT time on Tuesday. For Canada, it is a primary indicator expressing the economic activity as reported by over 150 respective managers from the major companies across the country. A better-than-expected report will support the CAD.
The same will happen if Canada provides positive jobs data on Friday. The employment rate and unemployment change will be released at 15:30 MT time on January 10, at the same time of the NFP release.
Consumer confidence in Japan
On Wednesday, Japan will release its consumer confidence indicator at 07:00 MT time. In the last months, the country households have been sharing a consistently improved situation and outlooks, different from the declining trend throughout most of 2019. If the January 8 release adds another step into the upward indicator curve, the JPY will gain strength.
Business confidence in Europe
On Wednesday as well, the European Business Climate Indicator will be released at 12:00 MT time. Throughout the entire year 2019, this indicator has been declining, showing the negative values for the last three months. Although not a 100% outcome, market disappointment is a very possible scenario. If the BCI comes lower than the forecasts, the EUR will be under pressure down.
The last but not the least – in fact, most importantly, the Non-Farm payrolls will be provided at 15:30 MT time on Friday. As usual, the American labor authorities will present the figures in line with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. The picture released in December was unexpectedly good, so the market lowered its expectations for the January 10 release. However, if the data surprises the observers another time, the USD will grow.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The Canadian central bank will make a monetary policy report and announce interest rates on Wednesday, January 20, at 17:00 MT time. Also, the BOC press conference will be held later.
USD’s rally takes a pause, while riskier assets are modestly rising.
We are now past the middle of January, and this means that the largest US companies will report their earnings for the fourth quarter and many of them will provide the results of the entire 2020.