The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
Important events this week will bring us
The outbreak of coronavirus widens
During the weekend, the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus rose to 17,390 people. The virus continues to affect the market as companies close their offices and ban transportation to China. The situation pulls the risky assets down and strengthens safe-haven assets. We may expect the risk-off sentiment to continue dominating in the market until positive news on the vaccine comes out.
RBA: will it cut the rate?
The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its monetary policy statement and announce the decision on the interest rate on February 4 at 05:30 MT time. The main question in all the analysts’ minds is whether the RBA will lower the current 0.75% interest rate? As the coronavirus outbreak continues to affect the market, it will be interesting to see how the regulator is going to act amid the given circumstances. Let’s not forget that Australia is one of close China's trade partners. Also, analysts keep reminding about below-the-target inflation and a high unemployment rate, which may be taken into central bank’s consideration while assessing the chances of more easing. All in all, if the rate cut happens, the AUD will slide. On the contrary, if the interest rate remains stable, the AUD will rise.
Job data of New Zealand
The next big event this Tuesday is the employment change and unemployment rate of New Zealand at 23:45 MT time. The forecasts are quite optimistic, as the market expects the employment change to advance by 0.3% and the unemployment rate to remain at the same level of 4.2%. If the actual level of employment change is higher, and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the NZD will strengthen.
First Friday of the month, you know what that means
The United States will publish non-farm payrolls (NFP), alongside with average hourly earnings and unemployment rate on February 7, at 15:30 MT time. As you know, this data makes the USD very volatile after the release. Analysts’ forecasts are positive. They anticipate the non-farm payrolls to increase by 160K, and average hourly earnings to advance by 0.3%. At the same time, the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 3.5%. The higher NFP and average hourly earnings and the lower unemployment rate will be appreciated by the bulls.
OPEC+ calls for an emergency meeting
The crush of oil prices to the fresh lows amid coronavirus panic provoked OPEC+ for an immediate response. The alliance is now planning an emergency meeting on February 8-9 or February 14-15 to discuss more output cuts in order to support the oil prices.
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The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.