The Most Important News For The Next Week

The Most Important News For The Next Week

Building Permits in the US for March

April 18th, 14:30 GMT+2.

The US Building Permits are released. Economists’expectations are +1.340M (the previous fact was 1.550M.

Starting from December 2022, the number of permits dropped below 1.5M, but there was a splash in March.

Maybe this splash resulted from market expectations that the Fed wouldn’t increase the rate. But the Fed raised it.

According to Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the 30-year mortgage rate keeps holding on to its historical maximum – 6.3% - this is 2001 – 2003 levels. 

The leading S&P Case-Shiller Index has been falling during the last year. Thus, we are pessimistic about the future of the real estate market.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD

EU Consumer Price Index (CPI)

April 19, 11:00 GMT+2.

The European CPI is published on Wednesday. The forecast is 6.9% YoY – the same as the previous fact.

It’s hard to say what the fact will be. The inflation rate in the strongest European economies – German and French economies – is rising. The preliminary point in Germany in March was 0.8%, and in France – the same.

The unemployment rate in Europe is falling, and nobody canceled the Philips curve (the higher the unemployment rate – the lower the inflation)

On the other hand, according to the leading PMI Indices, the economy is slowing down.

We may see the fact slightly below the forecast.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, EURAUD, EURJPY

US Existing Home Sales

April 22, 16:00 GMT+2.

We may try to predict existing home sales in the US by the new home sales numbers.

There is usually a lag between the indicators.

Right now, new home sales numbers are getting into some plateau. Consequently, we may expect that Existing home sales will start declining too.

Economists forecast 4.49M of sales. That’s logical. Numbers lower than expected will have a negative impact on USD.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY


UK Retail Sales

April 21, 09:00 GMT+2.

Average earnings in the UK started slowing down (households earn less).

The unemployment rate is expected to grow in February to 3.8%.

Leading IHS Markit PMIs are falling too. The economy faces a recession.

As a result, retail sales will fall and have a negative impact on GBP.

Instruments to trade: GBPUSD, GBPCHF, GBPAUD

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