Nonfarm Payrolls Release Next Week. What to Expect from the Markets?

Nonfarm Payrolls Release Next Week. What to Expect from the Markets?

RBA Interest Rate Decision

August 1st, 07:30 GMT+3.

The market is pricing the key rate hiking. RBA may increase the rate by 25 basis points – to 4.35%.

 By the way, experts are not so sure about that. RBA rate tracker demonstrates that the probability of the rate hike equals 57%. In the middle of July, this probability was higher than 70%. What happened?

 Inflation in Australia started slowing down, and RBA released its Meeting Minutes. According to the report: the monetary policy is already restrictive. The Central Bank is ready to maintain restrictive monetary policy as long as necessary.

 There is a chance that RBA will hold the rate at the current level. The Australian dollar will fall in this case.

 Instruments to trade: AUDUSD, AUDCAD, AUDJPY


The US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

August 1st, 17:00 GMT+3.

The ISM indicator is the oldest in the market.

If it falls below 43 points, the economy is considered to be in recession. The consensus forecast for July is 46.5 points. It means that the economy is slowing down, but the recession has not blasted yet.

If the index is above 46.5 – the US dollar will rise. Otherwise, we may expect the correction.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF

BoE Interest Rate Decision

August 3rd, 14:00 GMT+3.

The Bank of England (‘old lady’) will decide the interest rate on Thursday, August 3rd.

Economists expect Old Lady to increase the rate by 25 basis points – to 5.25%.

Inflation expectations in the UK started falling, but most MPC are hawks. According to BoE’s Ramsden: The latest UK inflation data shows that inflation sustainability indicators are still slightly higher than the Bank of England expected in May.

If BoE increases the rate and gives a hint that it is ready to increase more – the British pound may grow.

Instruments to trade: GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPAUD

The US Nonfarm Payrolls

August 4th, 15:30 GMT+3.

The Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment rate will be published in the US on the first Friday of 04th July.

The unemployment rate in the US is expected at 3.6% - the same as in the previous month. Economists think that Nonfarm payrolls will rise by 190K.

Initial Jobless Claims in July started slowing down. US Jobless Claims 4-week average started falling too – the situation in the labor market is improving.

If so, the unemployment rate may be released better than expected. It means that the US dollar may strengthen.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF

Try to Trade on Nonfarm


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