Nonfarm Payrolls is in Focus Today

Nonfarm Payrolls is in Focus Today

US labor market review

ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.9 points. Let us remind you, guys, that if PMI is below 50 points, the production is shrinking. The important level is usually considered to be at 43 points. If ISM is below 43 – the economy is in recession.

According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the activity in Employment is growing. The Employment index in May became 51.4. This may be a positive signal for today’s unemployment data release.

US Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week published better than expected and became 232K. But the number is still higher than in the previous week. The 4-week average jobless claims is decreasing – a good sign for the labor market.

Challenger Job Cuts jumped in May to 80.089K compared with 66.995K in April.

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change in May increased by 278K. Unfortunately, ADP Nonfarm and official Nonfarm numbers sometimes don’t correlate, so we can’t use the ADP data for NFP prediction.

The situation in Europe and gold prices

Today's unemployment rate is expected to be 3.5% vs. 3.4% in the previous month. We assume that the fact may be better. Consequently, the US dollar may rise. What do you think of that, guys?

The EU CPI was released at 6.1%. ECB’s Christine Lagarde: Inflation is still very high, we need to keep raising the rate. EURUSD jumped by almost 0.7% yesterday.

Gold broke $1975 up. The long-term trend is still bullish. The nearest resistance is at $1990.


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