The FOMC Meeting is in Focus Today

The FOMC Meeting is in Focus Today

Happy Wednesday, dears! Let’s look at the most crucial news for today.

The market is getting ready for the Fed decision

Today is a significant day, and we think you know why. The Fed will decide the interest rate. According to CME Fed Watch Tool, the probability of hiking the rate by 25 bp is 98.9%. It means that this decision is already in the market price. There are no doubts that FOMC will increase the rate. The question is what they will say… If Powell is mostly hawkish, the US dollar will skyrocket.

The US CB, Consumer Confidence Index, grew to 117 points vs. 111.8 points in the forecast. According to the Conference Board’s Dana Peterson: Expectations for the next six months improved materially, reflecting greater confidence about future business conditions and job availability. This likely reveals consumers’ belief that labor market conditions will remain favorable. Expectations for future incomes ticked slightly, a potential reflection of slower wage growth compared to a year ago. 

EURUSD was falling yesterday. The price dropped by 0.14% and reached 1.10204. The support line is at 1.10370. Stochastic lines intersected - a positive signal for bulls. The nearest resistance line is at 1.10900. 

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Canadian and Oil news

The Canadian Manufacturing Sales fell by 2.1% MoM. Industrial Production in Canada is slowing down. The last fact was released at almost 0% (+0.09%).

According to API, Weekly Crude Oil stock reached +1.319M. Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects that Saudi Arabia will be hit by low oil prices the most. Saudi Arabia will need average Brent oil prices above $80 a barrel to balance its budget this year. If production cuts continue and oil prices do not rise, the kingdom's budget could fall further into deficit.

What's going on with Bitcoin and Gold?

BTCUSD bounced from the 100 Moving Average in the Weekly timeframe and started falling again. We can’t say that the flat is over. The range is still somewhere between $29400 and $31500. The price is trying to leave this range and break the support line. The chance of a correction up is relatively high.

XAUUSD continued rising. The trend in the daily timeframe is bullish, so the probability of moving the price UP is still high. Be careful with short positions, and prepare that the situation may drastically change after the FOMC statement.

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