Several largest American companies will publish their financial results this week. BTCUSD and XAUUSD are skyrocketing. What's going on in the markets?
RBA Surprised the Markets
The first day of the month and Friday of the month are coming. It means all eyes are on Nonfarm Payrolls statistics and the unemployment rate numbers. But before this… What’s going on in the markets?
Surprise from the Reserve Bank of Australia
Australian PMI was released at 49.6 points – better than the previous month (48.2 points). As usual, guys, the single pop-up is almost nothing. We should look at the indicator dynamics. According to Markit Purchasing Manager Index has been in a downtrend since 2022. The national economy is slowing down.
Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the rate at 4.1%. The market expected that RBA would hike it. As a result, AUDUSD fell by 1.3%. RBA says: ‘Further tightening of monetary policy may be needed - everything will depend on the incoming data.’
German Economy is Slowing Down
HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI dropped to 38.8 points. German economy keeps slowing down. The Inflation rate is still quite high (the last fact was released at 6.2%); the situation in the labor market is not perfect, and the GDP growth rate was released at -0.2% in June. IMF has already stated that the German economy ‘could become the most inefficient major economy in the world this year.’
Oil Prices. New Goldman Sachs Review
According to bank analysts, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for global oil demand for this year: global oil demand in July reached a record high of 102.8 million. The bank kept its Brent price forecast at $86 for December 2023 and expects it to grow to $93/bbl in the second quarter of 2024.
BTC and Gold Prices
BTCUSD still cannot break 100MA in the Weekly timeframe. The long-term trend keeps being bearish. If we switch to the Monthly timeframe, the picture will be clearer. The price has broken 23.6% of the Fibo correction level but started correcting. The bears may push the price to $28100 again, but the further movement will depend on whether the bulls are ready to fight for this level. If they are ready - then the uptrend will continue. 50 Moving Average is heading up - a positive sign for buyers. Parabolic SAR is moving up too, and the MACD lines will intersect each other soon.
XAUUSD has almost reached the trend line that is heading up. The strong support is at $1950. If we switch to the H4 timeframe, we will see that the price is testing its 100MA, and there is a chance that the reversal and movement will start soon.
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