Analysts Waiting China to Decrease the Rate

Analysts Waiting China to Decrease the Rate

Tuesday is here! Some news was released. Let’s go through them!

Treasury market after Jackson Hole symposium

Treasuries attract buyers - high yields offset Powell's warning. Various banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., remain bullish on the bond market despite Powell's warning at Jackson Hole on Friday of possible new increases. They believe that even further Fed rate hikes will not lead to significant bond losses to outweigh the highest yield since 2007.

Bank of America: Powell's speech at Jackson Hole was balanced, with hawk and dove elements. We still expect another 0.25% rate hike in November. We expect a 0.75% rate cut in 2024 starting in June.

Asian markets

Analysts believe that the Central Bank of China may again reduce the RRR reserve requirement to increase liquidity in the system. JPMorgan Bank expects the central bank to cut the RRR rate by 0.25% this quarter. It means that USDCNH may start rising again.

Yen to drop to 1990 year levels if BoJ stays soft – Goldman Sachs. Bank strategists led by Kamakshya Trivedi predict that the yen will hit 155 over the next six months, the lowest level since June 1990. They previously expected the yen to trade up to 135. «While the Bank of Japan is still far from raising rates, the yen should continue to decline» the strategists wrote in a note.

European markets

German Gfk Consumer Climate Index fell to -25.5 points. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany will not allocate additional funds to fight economic problems and increase the size of its debts.

EURUSD is testing its 200MA. Bulls and bears are fighting for the crucial levels. The price may rise slightly, considering that stochastic lines almost intersected in the oversold zone in the Weekly timeframe. The pair may try to return to 1.0900, but at first, bulls should break the resistance at 1.0830.

XAUUSD is moving to its resistance at $1935. But the Average Directional Index is falling. It means that the trend may be weak. In the weekly timeframe -the DM line starts approaching the +DM line - it's a bearish sign. The situation in the higher timeframe looks much more predictable. The trend line is heading down. At the beginning of August, XAUUSD broke the support level and started falling. Technically, bulls may try to return the price to this line, which becomes a resistance line right now. It means the chance that the price will touch $1935 is quite high. Bulls may try to attack this level. If they don't succeed the price may continue correcting. 


The JOLTS indicator is in focus today. Even though JOLTS is lagging, the market may react to the numbers. If the fact is higher than 9.465M – the US dollar may try to rise.

Try to trade on JOLTS report


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