Current Risks for Developed Economies

Current Risks for Developed Economies

Hello, dear traders, and welcome to Wednesday. Let’s look at the most interesting events for today.

Oil Prices

According to the Wall Street Journal, oil will rise to 100 if Western companies do not increase drilling and production in response to supply cuts from OPEC+.

XBRUSD broke the bullish flag and continued rising. The nearest resistance is at 93.50. If the bulls succeed in breaking it, XBRUSD may touch 94.90.

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The US Shutdown

The rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US has increased to 7.78%, a maximum since August 2000. The economy is slowing down.

Moody's warns that the US shutdown will negatively impact the country's creditworthiness. The stark warning came a month after Fitch downgraded the US by one notch amid the debt ceiling crisis. As a reminder, US government services will be disrupted if Congress does not provide funding for the fiscal year beginning October 1, and hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be placed on leave without pay. We expect high volatility in the stock markets.

US Treasuries extended their decline, pushing 10- and 30-year yields to new multi-year highs. It happened amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high and the supply of new bonds will continue to rise as the federal government grapples with the rising deficit.

For the first time in 13 years, the Fed is cutting staff, recording losses of $100 billion. A Fed spokesman said the cuts affect staff at the Fed's 12 regional reserve banks and primarily affect information technology jobs, including those no longer needed due to the rise of cloud-based computer software and positions related to various systems.

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