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Investor Positivity May Fade After Powell's Speech and CPI Release
Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
January 10, 15:00 GMT+2
The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a speech at a symposium hosted by Riksbank in Stockholm on Tuesday, January 10, at 15:00 GMT+2.
As head of the Federal Reserve, which controls the US short-term interest rates, Powell has more influence over the nation's currency than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they often give clues regarding future monetary policy. Thus, the markets are always volatile when he speaks.
After the last FOMC meeting minutes, hopes of a slow drop in rates, at least in the 2nd half of 2023, were severely dispelled. The hawks are winning as the Fed members will not change the course of monetary policy. Powell's upcoming speech could refute or confirm investors' fears about the Fed's key rate ceiling.
Last time, on November 30, during the speech at the Brooking Institution, Jerome Powell was more dovish. As a result, EURUSD skyrocketed, gaining 2% within one day.
- If Jerome Powell is hawkish, the USD will strengthen.
- Otherwise, the USD will weaken.
Instruments to trade: EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD.
US CPI m/m
January 12, 15:30 GMT+2
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Currently, price stability is the primary goal of the Federal Reserve. Thus, the release will significantly impact the future Federal Reserve’s decisions. In November and December, the actual CPI m/m underperformed expectations, hitting 0.4% and 0.1% versus 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. As a result, the FOMC slowed down the pace of the key rate hikes, raising the rate by just 50 basis points in December versus 75 basis points at each of three previous meetings.
- Higher-than-expected numbers are usually positive for USD and negative for XAUUSD.
- If the actual numbers underperform the expectations, the USD will fall, pushing XAUUSD higher.
Instruments to trade: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD.
UK GDP m/m
January 13, 09:00 GMT+2
The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics will release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) m/m on January 13, 09:00 GMT+2. The indicator is the broadest measure of economic activity and the economy's health, as it gauges a change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
Inflation in the United Kingdom remains one of the highest among the major European economies. As a result, the UK's central bank sets the highest key rate, leaving the central banks of France, Spain, and Germany behind. Under these conditions, the economy of the UK struggled, with GDP declining by 0.3% in September and 0.6% in October. However, the numbers overperformed the expectations in November, delighting investors with a possible economic rebound. As a result, GBPUSD gained over 2000 points within three days after the release.
Therefore, a further decline in inflation may force the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting on February 1, which will be positive for the stock markets and harmful for the US dollar.
- Higher-than-expected numbers will boost the GBP.
- If the actual GDP data underperforms expectations, GBP will fall.
Instruments to trade: GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPJPY.
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