Investor Positivity May Fade After Powell's Speech and CPI Release

Investor Positivity May Fade After Powell's Speech and CPI Release

Fed Chair Powell’s Speech

January 10, 15:00 GMT+2

The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a speech at a symposium hosted by Riksbank in Stockholm on Tuesday, January 10, at 15:00 GMT+2.

As head of the Federal Reserve, which controls the US short-term interest rates, Powell has more influence over the nation's currency than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they often give clues regarding future monetary policy. Thus, the markets are always volatile when he speaks.

After the last FOMC meeting minutes, hopes of a slow drop in rates, at least in the 2nd half of 2023, were severely dispelled. The hawks are winning as the Fed members will not change the course of monetary policy. Powell's upcoming speech could refute or confirm investors' fears about the Fed's key rate ceiling.

Last time, on November 30, during the speech at the Brooking Institution, Jerome Powell was more dovish. As a result, EURUSD skyrocketed, gaining 2% within one day.

Powell Speech.png

  • If Jerome Powell is hawkish, the USD will strengthen.
  • Otherwise, the USD will weaken.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD.


US CPI m/m

January 12, 15:30 GMT+2

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Currently, price stability is the primary goal of the Federal Reserve. Thus, the release will significantly impact the future Federal Reserve’s decisions. In November and December, the actual CPI m/m underperformed expectations, hitting 0.4% and 0.1% versus 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. As a result, the FOMC slowed down the pace of the key rate hikes, raising the rate by just 50 basis points in December versus 75 basis points at each of three previous meetings.

NFP release.png

  • Higher-than-expected numbers are usually positive for USD and negative for XAUUSD.
  • If the actual numbers underperform the expectations, the USD will fall, pushing XAUUSD higher.

Instruments to trade: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD.


UK GDP m/m

January 13, 09:00 GMT+2

The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics will release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) m/m on January 13, 09:00 GMT+2. The indicator is the broadest measure of economic activity and the economy's health, as it gauges a change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

Inflation in the United Kingdom remains one of the highest among the major European economies. As a result, the UK's central bank sets the highest key rate, leaving the central banks of France, Spain, and Germany behind. Under these conditions, the economy of the UK struggled, with GDP declining by 0.3% in September and 0.6% in October. However, the numbers overperformed the expectations in November, delighting investors with a possible economic rebound. As a result, GBPUSD gained over 2000 points within three days after the release. 

Therefore, a further decline in inflation may force the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting on February 1, which will be positive for the stock markets and harmful for the US dollar.

UK GDP.png

  • Higher-than-expected numbers will boost the GBP.
  • If the actual GDP data underperforms expectations, GBP will fall.

Instruments to trade: GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPJPY.



US Dollar Prepares for the Pump
US Dollar Prepares for the Pump

On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies. 

Uptrend in Gold Starts Now
Uptrend in Gold Starts Now

Happy Wednesday, traders! We went through the Internet and found the best news for you, take a look!

Gold and USD ahead of the Fed
Gold and USD ahead of the Fed

Yesterday, the release of the US Inflation rate came out lower than the forecasts (0.1% vs. 0.3%). The soft figures pulled the US dollar index down by almost 1%. At the same time, S&P500, EURUSD, and gold strengthened. Today, the Fed will hold a meeting at 21:00 GMT+3. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points.

Latest news

What Currency Will Overperform?
What Currency Will Overperform?

S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

USD Holds the Line
USD Holds the Line

The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now. 

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