Morgan Stanley analytics forecast the economy will return to pre-crisis levels by the fourth quarter. Here’s why.
Japan’s export surge speeds down more than anticipated
In July, Japan's export surge speeded down more than anticipated due to the fact that shipments to America kept tumbling for a second straight month. The automotive sector slumped abruptly and global trade disputes generated doubts as for foreign demand.
On Thursday, Japan’s Ministry of Finance informed that exports managed to gain 3.9% year-on-year in July, which is far below a 6.3% rally anticipated by market experts in a Reuters survey. The tumble actually followed June’s 6.7% year-on-year jump.
Japan's exports to America slumped by 5.2% year-on-year in July, diving for a second straight month because of a 12.1% sink in car shipments.
The decline in US-bound car exports turned out to be an aftermath to firm sales observed there in 2017, spurred by the sound American economy as well as dips in crude prices.
American leader has threatened to roll out heavier tariffs soon, thus hoping to overcome the American automotive sector’s trade deficit with Japan and Germany and spurring speculation as for restrictions of American car exports.
Meanwhile, Japanese car makers haven’t demonstrated any signs of rushing to spur car shipments to America that would happen if they actually expected higher duties be slapped on their exports in coming months.
Additionally, imports from America tacked on by 11.0% in the year to July, backed by crude prices, motors as well as liquefied petroleum gas.
Therefore, Japan's trade surplus with America went down by 22.1% year-on-year hitting 502.7 billion yen.
As for exports to China, which is Japan's number one trading partner, they inched up by 11.9% in July from 2017.
Shipments to Asia, accounting for over half of Japan's overall exports, jumped by 8%, driven by semiconductor production equipment as well as electronics parts for China, not to mention sales of steel to Thailand.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.