Morgan Stanley analytics forecast the economy will return to pre-crisis levels by the fourth quarter. Here’s why.
Japanese exports rally by 7.8% in April
In April 2018, Japanese exports in value terms managed to grow by 7.8% year-on-year, hitting 6.82 trillion yen, as follows from the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
The index has been going up for the 17th month in a row. In February, it soared significantly from 1.8% and 2.1% in March, although it turned to be weaker than the previously expected 8.7%. The key reason for the restrained soar in exports was the strengthening of the Japanese yen.
However, the previous month Japan ramped up imports by 5.9% compared with April 2017, to 6.2 billion yen, after the March sag of 0.6%. On average market experts predicted a more significant surge - by 9.8%.
The previous month the surplus of the Asian country’s trade balance accounted for 626 billion yen, with an average forecast of market experts at 440 billion yen.
Market experts expected a moderate recovery in exports. They are assured that it won’t be mild.
Exports are still the major source of economic surge in Japan. Besides this, sales of goods to China, which turns to be Japan's largest trading partner, headed north by up to 10.9% in April. Meanwhile, the volume of supplies to the EU rallied by 14.1%.
Deliveries of goods to the United States went up by 4.3%. As a matter of fact, Japan's surplus in trade relations with the United States soared by 4.7%, to 615.7 billion yen. The surge of the positive balance can make Japan the next objective of the administration of US President Donald Trump.
Daiwa Securities experts note the recovery of the indicator of exports of vehicles and semiconductor equipment in April, which, they say, proves that the weakening in the first quarter turned to be temporary. Besides this, deliveries of Japanese cars abroad soared by 15.3% in annual terms, while equipment for chip manufacturing gained by 18.2%.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.