The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Latest forex news on July 22
- The market sentiment is risk-on today. The US dollar continues waning, while riskier assets and precious metals are rising. Nasdaq surged to the record high at 10 860.
- The risk appetite boosted by the optimistic news from biotech companies. AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Synairgen revealed successful vaccine tests and effective coronavirus treatments.
- The USA is going to follow the EU example on supporting the economy. Recently the EU members agreed on a 750-billion-euros recovery fund. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi were discussing the further fiscal stimulus package.
- Australian preliminary retail sales rose by 2.4% in June. It was lower than in May, when sales grew by 16.9%. However, the AUD is climbing up on the current risk-on mood.
EUR/USD surged higher on the positive news on the EU recovery fund and vaccine promising results. It reached the level unseen since January 6, 2019 at 1.1530. However, it has showed some weakness recently. It may meet the support at the key psychological mark at 1.1500. If it falls below that level, it will reach the next support at the low of July 21 at 1.1440.
The S&P 500 surged higher and reached the 3 250 level. It may meet the resistance at 3 325. If it breaks it through, the stock index may increase to the all-time high at 3 390. Support levels are at the low of July 16 at 3 190 and at the 200-day moving average at 3 045.
Gold reached rates unseen since September 1, 2011 at $1 860. These days it tends to rise together with stocks. Support levels are at $ 1 840 and at $ 1 815.
The risk-sensitive British pound surged but then closed in red. According to the Telegraph, there are no developments in Brexit talks. The breakthrough is only expected at the year-end, when the transition period expires. Let’s look at the daily GBP/USD chart. If the price breaks the high of June 10 and the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.2816, it will jump higher to the key psychological mark at 1.300. Otherwise, if it falls below the support at the 200-day moving average at 1.2700, it may plummet even deeper to the next support at 61.8% Fibo level at 1.2520.
- The Canadian CPI will be published at 15:30 MT time. Don't miss out!
- Follow the US crude oil inventories report at 17:30 MT time.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.