Inflation in Europe was released better than the forecast. The preliminary fact was published at 4.3%. What's happening in the markets?
Main market movements on August 11
The market sentiment improved after the USA reported some decreasing in coronavirus hospitalizations. Gold dropped below $2 000 and the US dollar dipped down, while stocks surged. Let’s have a closer look.
- UK Jobless claims came out much worse than analysts expected. They turned out 94 400, while the forecast 9 700. Quite a huge gap! However, the unemployment rate came out slightly better than the forecasts: 3.9% against the anticipated 4.2%. The GBP fell down after the mixed data.
- The US president Donald Trump cut capital gains taxes. That should boost US employment.
- US-China tensions are escalating. Chinese authorities imposed sanctions against 11 Americans in response to the US actions in Hong Kong. Interesting fact though that this list doesn’t include officials from the Trump administration.
- The largest oil company in the world, Saudi Aramco, announced the improvement in the oil demand. Oil prices increased amid the overall risk-on sentiment.
Some analysts believe that EUR/USD is unlikely to keep rallying. Indeed, it has been steeply declining for the third day in a row. The ZEW economic sentiment at 12:00 MT time will define the further euro movement. If EUR/USD breaks the low of August 4 at 1.1720, it may fall even deeper to the key psychological mark at 1.1700. On the flip side, if it jumps above the 50 moving average at 1.1800 on the 4-hour chart, it may reach 1.1820 on the 61.8% Fibo level.
The British pound weakened after the mixed jobs data. It has been trading exactly under the 50 moving average since Friday. If it manages to break through the 1.3100 level, which it has touched several times already, it will rise to the high of August 6 at 1.3160.
The stock index has been rallying for the 10th day straight. It’s widely expected that it will reach the all-time high at 3 390. Anyway, look for support levels at the lows of January-February of this year at 3 325 and 3 270.
Finally, let’s look at the gold chart. The move below $2 000 really surprised all the traders today as nobody expected it. If it closes below $2 000, it will open doors towards the low of July 30 at $1 970. Resistance levels are $2 025 and $2 050.
- The ZEW economic sentiment will be out at 12:00 MT time. It will add fresh volatility to the euro.
- The US PPI will be reported at 15:30 MT time.
- The UK CB leading index will be out on 16:30 MT time. It will have an impact on the GBP! Don’t miss out!
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Welcome to the first week of October! As usual, at the start of the week, we are looking for valuable insights that will bring us profits in trading. Let’s observe the main events.