The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
Main market movements on August 13
The market sentiment switched to risk-on. The US dollar is dipping down, while riskier assets are rising, especially the Australian dollar after the positive employment data. All eyes on US unemployment claims.
- 114 700 people have found jobs in Australia, while analysts expected only 30 000. In addition, the unemployment rate increased by 7.5%, that was less than the forecast of 7.8%. As a result, the Australian dollar surged. We’ll discuss technical levels below.
- The US consumer price index came out better than expected yesterday. It was 0.6%, while the forecast was 0.3%.
- Democrats and Republicans stay far apart on the next fiscal stimulus package. The longer talks continue, the more it weighs on the US economy.
- Crude oil inventories contracted by 4.5 million barrels, while analysts foresaw the 3.4-million drop.
The Australian dollar surged, but then bounced off the resistance at the high of August 11 at 0.7185. If It manages to cross this level, it will open doors towards the next resistance at the high of August 7 at 0.7215. Support levels are 0.7145 and 0.7115.
EUR/USD has just broken out the 61.8% Fibonacci level. It may have a short pullback back to this level, but then it should surge higher to the key psychological mark at 1.1900. Support levels are 1.1820 and 1.1800.
S&P 500 is edging higher. It almost reached the all-time high at 3 390, but then slightly contracted. Vaccine hopes and declining infections should support the current risk-on sentiment and drive the stock index higher. Watch out the key resistance at 3 390. The move above will push the price to 3 400. Support levels are at the low of August 11 at 3 315 and at 3 270.
Finally, let’s look at the gold chart. It has just crossed the resistance at $1 930. Therefore, it should reach the next one at $1 950. Support levels at $1 910 and $1 880.
- The US unemployment claims will be released at 15:30 MT time!
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.