The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Main market movements on August 13
The market sentiment switched to risk-on. The US dollar is dipping down, while riskier assets are rising, especially the Australian dollar after the positive employment data. All eyes on US unemployment claims.
- 114 700 people have found jobs in Australia, while analysts expected only 30 000. In addition, the unemployment rate increased by 7.5%, that was less than the forecast of 7.8%. As a result, the Australian dollar surged. We’ll discuss technical levels below.
- The US consumer price index came out better than expected yesterday. It was 0.6%, while the forecast was 0.3%.
- Democrats and Republicans stay far apart on the next fiscal stimulus package. The longer talks continue, the more it weighs on the US economy.
- Crude oil inventories contracted by 4.5 million barrels, while analysts foresaw the 3.4-million drop.
The Australian dollar surged, but then bounced off the resistance at the high of August 11 at 0.7185. If It manages to cross this level, it will open doors towards the next resistance at the high of August 7 at 0.7215. Support levels are 0.7145 and 0.7115.
EUR/USD has just broken out the 61.8% Fibonacci level. It may have a short pullback back to this level, but then it should surge higher to the key psychological mark at 1.1900. Support levels are 1.1820 and 1.1800.
S&P 500 is edging higher. It almost reached the all-time high at 3 390, but then slightly contracted. Vaccine hopes and declining infections should support the current risk-on sentiment and drive the stock index higher. Watch out the key resistance at 3 390. The move above will push the price to 3 400. Support levels are at the low of August 11 at 3 315 and at 3 270.
Finally, let’s look at the gold chart. It has just crossed the resistance at $1 930. Therefore, it should reach the next one at $1 950. Support levels at $1 910 and $1 880.
- The US unemployment claims will be released at 15:30 MT time!
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
Happy Wednesday, traders! We went through the Internet and found the best news for you, take a look!
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.