The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Main market movements on July 31
The overall market sentiment is mixed as new virus cases continue rising throughout the world, but most economic indicators came out better than analysts expected. Let’s look at the main market movements.
- The US advance GDP dropped by 32.9%, while the forecast was the 34.5% decrease. It revealed the largest decline on record, showing the devastating damage from the coronavirus. The fresh resurgence in the country forced the government to stop reopening plans and impose new support measures.
- Today the Chinese manufacturing PMI has climbed by 51.1 this month, that marked the industry expansion.
- Also, the Japanese unemployment rate came out 2.8%, that was better than the analysts’ forecast of 3.0%.
- The German preliminary GDP turned out worse than anticipated. It slumped by 10.1% while the forecast was the 9.0% contraction.
Let’s look at the EUR/USD chart. Despite the negative German GDP, the pair has reached the high level unseen since May 13, 2018 at 1.1900. If the pair breaks through this level again, it may surge even higher to the key psychological mark at 1.2000. On the flip side, if it moves below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1820, it will open doors towards the next support at 1.1790.
The S&P 500 gained as big tech stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google surged higher after their earnings reports beat all estimates. The stock index bounced off the resistance at 3 270 and modestly contracted. The move above this level will clear the way to the next resistance at 3 325. Support levels are at 3 210 and 3 190.
Gold has just crossed the recent high at $1 970. Fears over the rising virus cases and the overall economic uncertainty have added tailwinds to the yellow metal. Now it’s moving towards the all-time record at $1 980. If it manages to cross it, it may surge to the key psychological mark at $2 000.
GBP/USD has been edging up for the 11th day in a row! It’s approaching the 100% Fibonacci level at 1.3200. If it crosses it, it can jump to the high of December of the last year at 1.3325. Support levels are at 1.2900 and 1.2815 at the 78.6% Fibo level.
- The Canadian GDP will be released at 15:30 MT time. It will have a huge impact on the CAD. Stay tuned!
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.