Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
Main market news and trade ideas on July 20
The market sentiment is mixed as investors are weighing on additional government support measures amid increasing virus cases throughout the world.
Fundamental factors
- The Japanese trade balance came out much worse than analysts expected. It contracted by 420 billion yens, while the forecast was for 330 billion yens. USD/JPY sharply surged after the report.
- The German Producer Price Index didn’t change at all since the last month, while the forecast was for the 0.2% growth.
- EU members continue negotiating to reach an agreement on a coronavirus recovery package. There are some disputes on dividing the 750-billion-euro aid package into grants and low-interest loans. The Euro gained a lot on that news.
- Brexit talks have been left aside for a while as the EU summit is in the main focus of attention. The British pound is losing against the Euro.
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Technical factors
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has reached the level unseen since January 6, 2019. It continues rising amid ongoing EU summit negotiations. It may meet the strong resistance at the key psychological mark at 1.15. If it breaks it through, it may surge to new highs. On the flip slide, if the pair falls down to the low of July 17 at 1.1428, it will open doors towards the next support at 1.1385.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY ramped up after the worse-than-expected data from Japan. Then it met the resistance at the 107.4 level, which it has touched several times already. Now it’s moving down towards the intersection of 50- and 200-period moving averages at 107.16. The move below will push the price lower to 107.05.
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP is edging up as Brexit talks remain in the shadow of EU summit negotiations. The pair has just bounced from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and jumped above the 78.6% Fibo level at 0.9125. If it crosses the resistance at 0.914, it may surge further to the high of June 29 at 0.916. Support levels are 0.9125 and 0.9084.
Gold
XAU/USD has been trading in a range between $1 815 and $1 794 for over two weeks. It has just crossed the resistance at $1 810. Now it’s moving towards the next one at $1 815. It may struggle to cross it again and fall down to support levels at$1 810 and $1 805.
Upcoming events:
- The EU current account will be published at 11:00 MT time.
- The Chief economist of the Bank of England will make a statement at 18:10 MT time.
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Latest news
US PCE May Soar Soon
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will release monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on June 30, 15:30 GMT+3.
Bank of England Tries to Save the Pound
The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will hold a speech on June 29 at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
How Will US PMIs Affect the USD?
The US Markit will publish Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMIs (purchasing managers' indices) on June 23 at 16:45 GMT+3.
