Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
Main market news and trade ideas on July 20
The market sentiment is mixed as investors are weighing on additional government support measures amid increasing virus cases throughout the world.
- The Japanese trade balance came out much worse than analysts expected. It contracted by 420 billion yens, while the forecast was for 330 billion yens. USD/JPY sharply surged after the report.
- The German Producer Price Index didn’t change at all since the last month, while the forecast was for the 0.2% growth.
- EU members continue negotiating to reach an agreement on a coronavirus recovery package. There are some disputes on dividing the 750-billion-euro aid package into grants and low-interest loans. The Euro gained a lot on that news.
- Brexit talks have been left aside for a while as the EU summit is in the main focus of attention. The British pound is losing against the Euro.
EUR/USD has reached the level unseen since January 6, 2019. It continues rising amid ongoing EU summit negotiations. It may meet the strong resistance at the key psychological mark at 1.15. If it breaks it through, it may surge to new highs. On the flip slide, if the pair falls down to the low of July 17 at 1.1428, it will open doors towards the next support at 1.1385.
USD/JPY ramped up after the worse-than-expected data from Japan. Then it met the resistance at the 107.4 level, which it has touched several times already. Now it’s moving down towards the intersection of 50- and 200-period moving averages at 107.16. The move below will push the price lower to 107.05.
EUR/GBP is edging up as Brexit talks remain in the shadow of EU summit negotiations. The pair has just bounced from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and jumped above the 78.6% Fibo level at 0.9125. If it crosses the resistance at 0.914, it may surge further to the high of June 29 at 0.916. Support levels are 0.9125 and 0.9084.
XAU/USD has been trading in a range between $1 815 and $1 794 for over two weeks. It has just crossed the resistance at $1 810. Now it’s moving towards the next one at $1 815. It may struggle to cross it again and fall down to support levels at$1 810 and $1 805.
- The EU current account will be published at 11:00 MT time.
- The Chief economist of the Bank of England will make a statement at 18:10 MT time.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
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The Canadian central bank will make a monetary policy report and announce interest rates on Wednesday, January 20, at 17:00 MT time. Also, the BOC press conference will be held later.
USD’s rally takes a pause, while riskier assets are modestly rising.