Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
March NFP: forecasts and opinions
Today the US nonfarm payroll data will be reported that could cause fluctuations of the market. However, this information won’t reveal the real state of affairs in the USA as it’s based on the survey held during the first two weeks of March, just before the huge impact of the virus outbreak.
Anyway, it’s commonly believed that the US labor market more or less collapsed. Most banks make their predictions on how much payrolls will drop: Commonwealth Bank of Australia - 200,000, Goldman Sachs – 180,000. MarketWatch economists predict a range from an increase of 100,000 to a loss of 700,000 jobs. Moreover, April NFP data is expected to be far worse. You can see below the US nonfarm payrolls from March 2019 to February 2020.
Analysts anticipate the unemployment rate to rise to 3.8-4%. However, it won’t reflect the real deterioration of the US labor market. According to the Fed, the US unemployment could increase to 15% as economy is enormously suffering from the coronavirus.
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The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.
The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
USD’s rally takes a pause, while riskier assets are modestly rising.
We are now past the middle of January, and this means that the largest US companies will report their earnings for the fourth quarter and many of them will provide the results of the entire 2020.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.