Last week was very interesting for the markets, as we saw the releases of the US Inflation and Disney’s earnings report. So let's see what we should await this week!
March NFP: forecasts and opinions
Today the US nonfarm payroll data will be reported that could cause fluctuations of the market. However, this information won’t reveal the real state of affairs in the USA as it’s based on the survey held during the first two weeks of March, just before the huge impact of the virus outbreak.
Anyway, it’s commonly believed that the US labor market more or less collapsed. Most banks make their predictions on how much payrolls will drop: Commonwealth Bank of Australia - 200,000, Goldman Sachs – 180,000. MarketWatch economists predict a range from an increase of 100,000 to a loss of 700,000 jobs. Moreover, April NFP data is expected to be far worse. You can see below the US nonfarm payrolls from March 2019 to February 2020.
Analysts anticipate the unemployment rate to rise to 3.8-4%. However, it won’t reflect the real deterioration of the US labor market. According to the Fed, the US unemployment could increase to 15% as economy is enormously suffering from the coronavirus.
If you want to know successful strategies of trading in the current volatile market conditions, read our article “Employment data may make the USD volatile” and join our webinar “NFP Live : trade with analyst’s help”.
The US Institute for Supply Management will release ISM manufacturing PMI on July 1, 17:00 GMT+3.
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will release monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on June 30, 15:30 GMT+3.
The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will hold a speech on June 29 at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).