Market Crash Incoming?

Market Crash Incoming?

This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings. 

US Federal Funds Rate

February 1, 21:00 GMT+2.

The US Federal Reserve will make a statement and release a Federal Funds Rate on February 1, 21:00 GMT+2. The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. Investors watch closely after these changes each time to get an idea of the next rate decision. As inflation is cooling down, every dovish statement is a solid bullish sign for risky assets and gold.

On the other hand, the USD may plunge even more if Fed hints at monetary easing soon. Also, traders should be careful as Federal Reserve insists on tightening throughout 2023. This time, the world expects Fed to make a 25-basis-point hike.

 XAUUSDH1.png

  • In case of hawkish comments and an expected hike, the USD may rise.
  • Otherwise, the USD will plunge.

 EU Refinancing Rate

February 2, 15:15 GMT+2.

The European Central Bank will release Main Refinancing Rate and make a Monetary Policy Statement on February 2, 15:15 GMT+2. It’s the primary tool the ECB uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

Inflation in the EU is going non-stop, and the bank’s primary goal is to slow down rising prices. Most likely, the ECB will remain hawkish, thus, boosting the EUR.

EURUSDM15.png

  • More hawkish comments than expected will help the EUR to rise.
  • Otherwise, EUR may fall.

 US NFP

February 3, 15:30 GMT+2.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings on February 3, 15:30 GMT+2. All three releases are vital for investors as it’s the primary economic data for the US Federal Reserve. A strong labor market will signal Fed that it may continue tightening the monetary policy and pressing on the economy.

On the other hand, a weak labor market would mean the economy is cooling down, and Fed may act more dovish, thus pushing the USD down and boosting gold.

XAUUSDM15.png

  • If NFP data is higher than expected, XAUUSD may fall.
  • Otherwise, XAUUSD may rise.

 

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S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

USD Holds the Line
USD Holds the Line

The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now. 

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Crucial News For The Following Week
Crucial News For The Following Week

Consumer Price Index, Existing Home Sales, US Fed rate decision - all of these things we will discuss in our new review. Don't miss it out!

Focus on Banks' Meeting and NFP
Focus on Banks' Meeting and NFP

The RBA and the Bank of Canada will add volatility to the AUD and the CAD, while USD is expected to be boosted by the Non-farm payrolls.

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