What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
Market drivers on June 15
Risk-averse still prevails on the market. Safe-haven assets are in favor, while risk-off ones are left aside. Great opportunities to make profit!
Let’s start with the most important pair. It has been falling down for two sessions straight as the market turned to risk-off after the Fed’s pessimistic prospect for the future recovery. However, today it went upward. Most analysts think that this was just a short correction and EUR will continue dipping. Indeed, fears of the second pandemic wave can add on demand for the safe-haven US dollar as Japan, China, and the US have reported a jump in the coronavirus cases. A bearish case will be firmer once EUR/USD breaks down the support level at 1.1170 or 61.8% Fibonacci level. After that, it may drop even deeper to the next support at 1.1065. Anyway, if some positive factors push EUR up, it will meet the resistance at 1.1310 or 78.6% Fibonacci level. Keep an eye on the EU trade balance that will be released today at 12:00 MT time.
A broad risk aversion wave pushed the British pound down. Moreover, on Friday the UK GDP turned out worse than analysts expected: -20.4% vs -18.6. According to The Times, the Bank of England will unleash further 150 billion pounds of stimulus in its latest effort to mitigate the economic damage from COVID-19. What’s more important, today’s Brexit negotiations will shed light on the fate of the UK economic future. If talks give hopes for the upcoming trade deal, it may push GBP higher. Otherwise, any delay on the agreement will cause looses for the British pound. On the GBP/USD chart we can notice that the pair has crossed the support level at 1.25. Now it’s headed towards the next support at 1.23. Resistance levels are 1.265 and 1.275.
Oil falls three days straight
Resurgence in coronavirus cases all over the world and the fresh outbreak in China make investors worry about the second wave of infections and the rebound of the oil demand, as well. According to ING Economics:
“the recovery in oil demand is already set to be a lengthy process, and a fresh wave of cases will certainly raise worries that a recovery in demand may take even longer than initially thought”.
On Thursday OPEC+ will discuss current output cuts and see whether all the countries have followed the agreement to reduce the oil supply. The WTI oil price is headed towards the support at $34, where also the 100-day moving average goes. If it crosses it, the price may slump to $30 a barrel. The resistance level is at $40.
To trade WTI with FBS you need to choose WTI-20N.
EUR/USD retraced to 1.1870 after breaking out this level. It should be just a natural sell-off ahead of the further rally up.
The Fed held a much-awaited meeting yesterday. The bank hasn’t made any policy changes. As a result, the USD weakened and EUR/USD rocketed. Jump in to know all the latest news!
Our analyst discusses the latest news and shares his trade ideas on gold, EUR/USD, and S&P 500. Jump in!
The Bank of England will publish a monetary policy statement and update on the interest rate on Thursday, at 14:00 MT time.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a meeting and announce changes to the monetary policy on August 3, at 07:30 MT time (GMT+3).