The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Market is crazy after Biden’s transition
Oil jumped to March high, stocks are heading to record highs, while the US dollar is on the back foot.
“The markets have good reasons to extend this risk rally because now we have clarity on the peaceful transition of leadership in the U.S. and positive vaccine developments,” claimed HSBC.
- Riskier assets surged, driven by optimistic vaccine news and Biden’s transition. Trump admitted Biden’s victory and pledged to cooperate.
- Joe Biden has chosen Janet Yellen as the Treasury Secretary. Markets participants have taken it as a signal for lower rates for longer and further expansion of the stimulus package, which implies the continuation of USD’s falling.
- As for the Brexit front, there’s nothing new, but investors hope for a soon agreement.
- The better-than-expected German data underpinned the euro.
- Stocks are on course for the best month on record. Dow Jones hit the all-time high of 30 000.
EUR/USD has bounced off the key resistance of 1.1900. However, the 50-period moving average of 1.1860 should support the pair as always. If it manages to break it, it will meet the next support at 1.1830. According to UOB Group, EUR/USD is expected to move sideways from 1.1800 to 1.1900 in the coming weeks, but the current risk-on sentiment may push the pair outside the familiar range. Resistance levels are 1.1920 and 1.1950.
XAU/USD dropped to $1 800 as expected. It’s unlikely to fall further as the 200-day moving average just below this level has to support the yellow metal. That’s why we can expect gold to bounce off and turn to the upside. Resistance levels are at the round number of $1 850 and the 50-period moving average of $1 865. On the flip side, if it manages to break the support of $1 800, it may drop to the July low of $1 770.
The stock index has retraced to $3 630 and started forming a green candle. According to market rules, the S&P 500 should move up after that, especially when the sentiment is strongly risk-on like now. The move above the resistance of $3 650 will drive the pair to the next round number of $3 660. In the opposite scenario, if it drops below yesterday’s low of $3 600, the way to Monday’s low of $3 575 will be clear.
WTI oil has just jumped above $45.00, the level unseen since March. If it rises above the high of February 28 at $46.50, the doors towards the high of March 3 at $47.50 will be open. Support levels are $45.00 and $ 43.00.
Follow US reports: GDP and unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time, and consumer sentiment at 17:00 MT time!
The better-than-expected reading will drive the USD up, the worse-than-expected - down.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.