What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
Market is crazy after Biden’s transition
Oil jumped to March high, stocks are heading to record highs, while the US dollar is on the back foot.
“The markets have good reasons to extend this risk rally because now we have clarity on the peaceful transition of leadership in the U.S. and positive vaccine developments,” claimed HSBC.
- Riskier assets surged, driven by optimistic vaccine news and Biden’s transition. Trump admitted Biden’s victory and pledged to cooperate.
- Joe Biden has chosen Janet Yellen as the Treasury Secretary. Markets participants have taken it as a signal for lower rates for longer and further expansion of the stimulus package, which implies the continuation of USD’s falling.
- As for the Brexit front, there’s nothing new, but investors hope for a soon agreement.
- The better-than-expected German data underpinned the euro.
- Stocks are on course for the best month on record. Dow Jones hit the all-time high of 30 000.
EUR/USD has bounced off the key resistance of 1.1900. However, the 50-period moving average of 1.1860 should support the pair as always. If it manages to break it, it will meet the next support at 1.1830. According to UOB Group, EUR/USD is expected to move sideways from 1.1800 to 1.1900 in the coming weeks, but the current risk-on sentiment may push the pair outside the familiar range. Resistance levels are 1.1920 and 1.1950.
XAU/USD dropped to $1 800 as expected. It’s unlikely to fall further as the 200-day moving average just below this level has to support the yellow metal. That’s why we can expect gold to bounce off and turn to the upside. Resistance levels are at the round number of $1 850 and the 50-period moving average of $1 865. On the flip side, if it manages to break the support of $1 800, it may drop to the July low of $1 770.
The stock index has retraced to $3 630 and started forming a green candle. According to market rules, the S&P 500 should move up after that, especially when the sentiment is strongly risk-on like now. The move above the resistance of $3 650 will drive the pair to the next round number of $3 660. In the opposite scenario, if it drops below yesterday’s low of $3 600, the way to Monday’s low of $3 575 will be clear.
WTI oil has just jumped above $45.00, the level unseen since March. If it rises above the high of February 28 at $46.50, the doors towards the high of March 3 at $47.50 will be open. Support levels are $45.00 and $ 43.00.
Follow US reports: GDP and unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time, and consumer sentiment at 17:00 MT time!
The better-than-expected reading will drive the USD up, the worse-than-expected - down.
EUR/USD retraced to 1.1870 after breaking out this level. It should be just a natural sell-off ahead of the further rally up.
The Fed held a much-awaited meeting yesterday. The bank hasn’t made any policy changes. As a result, the USD weakened and EUR/USD rocketed. Jump in to know all the latest news!
Read a short market wrap before trading today!
The United States will publish the non-farm employment change, also known as non-farm payrolls or NFP at 15:30 MT (GMT+3) time on August 6.
Our analyst discusses the latest news and shares his trade ideas on gold, EUR/USD, and S&P 500. Jump in!