How Energy Crisis Affects German PMI August 23, 2022, 10:30 GMT+3 Germany will publish Flash Manufacturing PMI data on Tuesday, August 23, at 10:30 MT time (GMT+3)…
Market is crazy after Biden’s transition
Oil jumped to March high, stocks are heading to record highs, while the US dollar is on the back foot.
“The markets have good reasons to extend this risk rally because now we have clarity on the peaceful transition of leadership in the U.S. and positive vaccine developments,” claimed HSBC.
- Riskier assets surged, driven by optimistic vaccine news and Biden’s transition. Trump admitted Biden’s victory and pledged to cooperate.
- Joe Biden has chosen Janet Yellen as the Treasury Secretary. Markets participants have taken it as a signal for lower rates for longer and further expansion of the stimulus package, which implies the continuation of USD’s falling.
- As for the Brexit front, there’s nothing new, but investors hope for a soon agreement.
- The better-than-expected German data underpinned the euro.
- Stocks are on course for the best month on record. Dow Jones hit the all-time high of 30 000.
EUR/USD has bounced off the key resistance of 1.1900. However, the 50-period moving average of 1.1860 should support the pair as always. If it manages to break it, it will meet the next support at 1.1830. According to UOB Group, EUR/USD is expected to move sideways from 1.1800 to 1.1900 in the coming weeks, but the current risk-on sentiment may push the pair outside the familiar range. Resistance levels are 1.1920 and 1.1950.
XAU/USD dropped to $1 800 as expected. It’s unlikely to fall further as the 200-day moving average just below this level has to support the yellow metal. That’s why we can expect gold to bounce off and turn to the upside. Resistance levels are at the round number of $1 850 and the 50-period moving average of $1 865. On the flip side, if it manages to break the support of $1 800, it may drop to the July low of $1 770.
The stock index has retraced to $3 630 and started forming a green candle. According to market rules, the S&P 500 should move up after that, especially when the sentiment is strongly risk-on like now. The move above the resistance of $3 650 will drive the pair to the next round number of $3 660. In the opposite scenario, if it drops below yesterday’s low of $3 600, the way to Monday’s low of $3 575 will be clear.
WTI oil has just jumped above $45.00, the level unseen since March. If it rises above the high of February 28 at $46.50, the doors towards the high of March 3 at $47.50 will be open. Support levels are $45.00 and $ 43.00.
Follow US reports: GDP and unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time, and consumer sentiment at 17:00 MT time!
The better-than-expected reading will drive the USD up, the worse-than-expected - down.
As Europe moves into recession, next week may provide us with some amazing trading opportunities. Here they are!
Main news that will drive the market in the upcoming week include CB Consumer Confidence Index, Canadian GDP, and US Core PCE Price Index
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and make a statement about the future monetary policy on Wednesday, September 21, GMT+3. After the higher-than-expected inflation numbers published on September 13, there’s almost no doubt the Federal Reserve will come up with another 75-basis-point rate hike. However, surprised by the CPI numbers, several Fed members announced the possibility of a 100-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday.