Four Banks Fight Against Inflation
It will be the hottest week of September, with four central banks’ meetings, five PMI releases, and a lot to trade.
Market sentiment slightly improved
Fundamentals
- China's growth turned the market sentiment to risk-on. Investors were encouraged after China’s GDP jumped by 6.5% in the final quarter, exceeding forecasts and even pre-pandemic levels. The data also proved that the Chinese economy was the only major one to avoid a contraction in 2020.
- The US dollar may be boosted after Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen testifies today. She is expected to “clear the US doesn’t seek a weaker dollar for competitive advantage”.
- The UK's fast vaccine rollout should underpin the GBP. The UK has already distributed around four million vaccinations, according to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
- The EUR took a breath after a steep falling. However, most forecasts are still bearish for the single-area currency. The support of 1.2000 is eyed.
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Technical tips
EUR/USD continues moving down after a short retracement. The 50-period moving average has just crossed the 200-period MA, forming a dead cross, which gives a bearish signal. The pair is expected to drop to the key psychological mark of 1.2000. After that, it should be pulled back to the upside. Resistance levels are 1.2170 and 1.2220.
GBP/USD is still trading inside an ascending channel. If it manages to break through the resistance of 1.3650, the way up to the high of January 14 at 1.3700 will be clear. On the flip side, the move below the support of 1.3550 will press the pair down to the 200-period moving average of 1.35000.
S&P 500 – 21H has just broken through the resistance of $3 790. Therefore, the way up to $3 800 is clear now. When the price rises to $3 800, we would expect the short pullback ahead of a further rise to 3 815. Support levels are 3 783 and 3 775.
EUR/GBP is trading sideways around 0.8900. If it manages to rise above the high of January 15, the way up to the next resistance of 0.8920 will be clear. Support levels are at the recent lows of 0.8850 and 0.8870.
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