The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Market sentiment slightly improved
- China's growth turned the market sentiment to risk-on. Investors were encouraged after China’s GDP jumped by 6.5% in the final quarter, exceeding forecasts and even pre-pandemic levels. The data also proved that the Chinese economy was the only major one to avoid a contraction in 2020.
- The US dollar may be boosted after Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen testifies today. She is expected to “clear the US doesn’t seek a weaker dollar for competitive advantage”.
- The UK's fast vaccine rollout should underpin the GBP. The UK has already distributed around four million vaccinations, according to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
- The EUR took a breath after a steep falling. However, most forecasts are still bearish for the single-area currency. The support of 1.2000 is eyed.
EUR/USD continues moving down after a short retracement. The 50-period moving average has just crossed the 200-period MA, forming a dead cross, which gives a bearish signal. The pair is expected to drop to the key psychological mark of 1.2000. After that, it should be pulled back to the upside. Resistance levels are 1.2170 and 1.2220.
GBP/USD is still trading inside an ascending channel. If it manages to break through the resistance of 1.3650, the way up to the high of January 14 at 1.3700 will be clear. On the flip side, the move below the support of 1.3550 will press the pair down to the 200-period moving average of 1.35000.
S&P 500 – 21H has just broken through the resistance of $3 790. Therefore, the way up to $3 800 is clear now. When the price rises to $3 800, we would expect the short pullback ahead of a further rise to 3 815. Support levels are 3 783 and 3 775.
EUR/GBP is trading sideways around 0.8900. If it manages to rise above the high of January 15, the way up to the next resistance of 0.8920 will be clear. Support levels are at the recent lows of 0.8850 and 0.8870.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.