The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Market updates: NFP edition
Key events ahead
Average hourly earnings – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)
Non-farm employment change – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)
Unemployment rate – 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)
The main focus for today will be on the American jobs data at 14:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the level of non-farm payrolls will advance by 89 thousand. At the same time, average hourly earnings will show an increase of 0.3% and the unemployment rate will rise to 3.6%. If the actual levels of NFP and average hourly earnings are higher, and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will strengthen. Let’s consider the most important pairs ahead of the event.
- Bulls of EUR/USD have not overcome the 1.1166 resistance level on H4 after the Fed rate cut on Wednesday. If the level is broken right after the release, reaching the next resistance at 1.1180 may be possible. The further upside momentum will be limited by the 1.1194 level. On the other hand, if the actual figures come out optimistic for the USD, EUR/USD will reverse towards 1.1131. After the breakout, bears need to focus on the 1.1121 level. The break of that level will be placed at 1.1106.
- USD/JPY has stuck below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart after yesterday’s plunge. The USD needs to be boosted by the positive NFP figures to break the current resistance at 108.53 and move upwards to the 108.15, 108.24 and 108.41 levels. From the downside, the breakout of the 107.93 level will open the way for bears towards the 107.8 level. The next support will lie at 107.65. RSI oscillator is oversold, that is why the continuation of the downside momentum may be expected.
- An upside momentum for the price of gold is the result of the mixed news concerning US-China trade truce and the weak USD. Currently, the price of the yellow metal is overbought on H4 according to RSI and testing the $1,514 resistance level. If the USD weakens on the job data, the breakout of that resistance will be inevitable. That kind of scenario may lead to the retest of the $1,518 level (high of October 25th). The next key level will be situated at $1,524. On the contrary, the first support will be placed at $1,509.2. The next one will lie at $1,504.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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