The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
Market updates on August 15
- US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time
- Philly Fed manufacturing index for the US – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time
- The Australian dollar was supported today by the upbeat jobs data for Australia. The indicator increased by 41.1 thousand jobs (vs the forecast of 14.2 thousand). The aussie rose above the 50-period SMA towards the 0.6783 level, but failed to stick near its highs on the revised forecasts of the upcoming RBA’s rate cuts and retested the 50-period SMA. If the aussie weakens, the pair may fall to the 0.6746-0.6736 levels. After the breakout of this range, the pair may retest the 0.6677 level. If the Australian dollar sticks above the 50-period SMA, the chance of the retest of 0.6783 level will increase. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 0.6799.
- EUR/USD is awaiting the release of the US indicators. The pair is trading with low volatility on H4. Pay attention to the 1.1150, 1.1157 (100-period SMA) and 1.1166 levels, which may be reached if the releases disappoint the market. From the downside, the key levels will lie at 1.1142, 1.1133 and 1.1116.
- USD/JPY spiked towards the 106.74 level, but then immediately moved down to the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. At the moment of writing the pair has been testing the strong support at 105.8 on H4. In case of a risk-off situation, pay attention to the next support level at 105.52. If the USD is supported, the 106.32-106.22 levels will be in focus.
US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
Australia will release employment change and an unemployment rate on Thursday, October 14, at 03:30 MT (GMT+3).
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
Great Britain will publish the Inflation Rate on October 20, at 09:00 MT time (GMT+3).
The bullish movement in the stock market is gaining speed, and Bitcoin ETFs are closer than they might seem. What do we need to know for the next trading week?