The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Market updates on August 23
Key events ahead:
- Canada’s core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)
- Speech by the Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Symposium – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)
- During the Asian trading session, the comments by the Governor of the Reserve bank of New Zealand Adrian Orr supported the New Zealand dollar. He said that the rate cut by 50 basis points reduced the probability of another one soon. On H4, NZD/USD has risen towards the resistance at 0.6391 and corrected. If bears continue to drag the pair down, the first support for it will lie at 0.6363. Alternatively, if the pair retests the 0.6391 level, the next one will lie at 0.6419 (50-period SMA).
- EUR/USD is awaiting the speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If he provides hawkish comments on the current situation in the economy and reassures the rate cut expectations, the USD will get stronger. In this case, the 1.1065 level will be broken and bears will try to pull EUR/USD lower towards the next support at 1.1028. If he is dovish, the pair will rise up to the resistance at 1.1088. The next key levels will lie 1.1106-1.1114.
- USD/CAD inched higher on the news that the European Union will stop the import of some Canadian products from September. After the test of the 1.3325 level, the pair slid to the support at 1.3311. If the CAD is supported today by higher-than-expected core retail sales, the current support will be broken, and the next support will lie at 1.33. Alternatively, pay attention to the 1.3325 level. In case of a breakout of that level, the next resistance will lie at 1.3338.
- Gold may move on the comments by the Fed Chair, too. At the moment it trades in a range between the $1,504 and $1,494 levels. Dovish comments by Mr. Powell may push the price of the yellow metal higher to the $1,504 level. If it is broken, the next resistance will lie close to the 50-period SMA at $1,508. In case of strong bullish pressure, there will be a possibility of reaching the $1,516 level. From the downside, after the breakout of the $1,494 level, the next one will lie at 1,490.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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