The overall market sentiment is risk-on. The S&P 500 index (US 500) is getting close to the all-time high. Oil is recovering quickly from its recent losses.
Market updates on July 11
Key events ahead
BOE Financial Stability Report – 12:30 MT time
Hawkish outlines will support the British pound
Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 13:00 MT time
His comments regarding future changes to the monetary policy will affect the GBP
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – 14:30 MT time
More insights into the previous dovish meeting of the ECB
US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT time
Higher-than-expected figures may help the USD to recover
Testimony by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell – 17:00 MT time
Let’s hear further comments by the dovish Fed Chair
Speech by the FOMC member Quarles – 20:30 MT time
Probably the last chance for the USD bulls to see the rise of the USD today, if the comments by the FOMC member are less dovish.
- Yesterday, the dovish remarks on the expectations of a rate cut by the Fed weakened the USD against other currencies. On H4, EUR/USD has managed to stick above the crossover of the 50-period and 200-period SMA near the 1.1269 level. If the USD continues to weaken, bulls will likely face the resistance at 1.1285. After the breakout, the rise will be limited by the 1.1306 level. The next key level is 1.1321. If the USD gets positive momentum, the euro will slide below the 1.1269 level. The next support levels will lie at 1.1257 and 1.1249. Pay attention to the oscillators: if RSI leaves the overbought zone and Stochastic forms a crossover it may bring a short-term selling opportunity.
- GBP/USD also started to correct to the upside on dovish comments by Powell. The cable has already tested the resistance at 1.2538 on H4. The next key level will lie at 1.2587 (50% Fibo). If this level is broken, we need to pay attention to the 1.2603 and 1.2636 levels. From the downside, the support levels lie at 1.2508, 1.2496 and 1.2479. The stochastic indicator is about to form a crossover within the overbought zone.
- USD/JPY, in its turn, corrected to the downside. The first resistance for the pair lies at 108.13 (38.2% Fibo), If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 108.26 (50-period SMA). The strength of bulls will be proved after the next level at 108.37 is reached. On the other hand, weak USD will pull the pair to the support at 107.88 (50% Fibo). The next important level for bears lies at 107.61 (61.8% Fibo level).
- Oil has been rising on the news that third of the Gulf of Mexico’s crude output was halted by a storm and the crude oil inventories for the US declined more than expected (-9.5M vs. -1.9M).
WTI jumped to its May’s highs. The crude’s price is currently moving towards the resistance at $61.23 on H4. The next resistance for WTI will lie at $62.11. From the downside, pay attention to the $60.66 and $59.73 levels.
- As for Brent, its price is going up to the resistance at $67.68. The next resistance will lie at $68.11. The key support levels are $67.39, $66.5 and $66.03.
Note, that you can trade WTI with WTI-19Q and Brent with BRN-19U futures in the MT4 platform.
What will happen? The FOMC statement will be published at 21:00 MT (GMT+3) on Wednesday, July 28…
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